Friday, May 23, 2008

Email to a Friend

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Pennsylvania finds Barack Obama attracting 45% of the vote while John McCain earns 43%. See video.

A month ago, immediately following the Keystone State’s hard-fought Democratic Presidential Primary, McCain had a one-point edge over Obama. Two weeks before the Primary, Obama had an eight-point edge over the Republican hopeful.

Obama leads McCain by nine points among women but trails by eight among men. McCain is supported by 71% of Republican voters while Obama picks up just 63% of the Democratic vote. However, Obama also leads by eight points among unaffiliated voters.

Obama is viewed favorably by 51% of the state’s voters, McCain by 49%. A month ago, both men earned favorable reviews from 51%. Before the Pennsylvania Primary, Obama was viewed favorably by 57%, McCain by 50%.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning Pennsylvania’s twenty-one Electoral College Votes this fall. John Kerry won the state for the Democrats in 2004 by a narrow 51% to 48% margin. Four years earlier, Al Gore won the state by four percentage points. At the time this poll was released, Pennsylvania was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain is very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic Presidential Nomination, she leads McCain in Pennsylvania by eleven percentage points, 50% to 39%. The former First Lady is viewed favorably by 52% of voters in the state. A separate national survey found that the number of Democrats who want Clinton to drop out of the race has declined over the last ten days. Data like this helps explain why Barack Obama is now entering the most perilous phase of his campaign. The way that he finally resolves the challenge from Senator Clinton may determine who moves into the White House next January.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Pennsylvania voters say it is more important to bring troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Thirty-three percent (33%) say victory is more important. Nationally, 52% say getting the troops home is the higher priority.

In the Keystone State, 44% say that victory is somewhat likely under a McCain Administration. If Obama is elected, just 20% believe victory is likely. However, 57% say it’s likely the troops would come home within four years under a President Obama. Just 38% have the same optimism if McCain becomes President.

Pennsylvania voters are evenly divided as to which Democratic candidate would do better in the general election. Among all voters, 42% say Obama would be tougher while 40% name Clinton. Among Democrats, 46% say Clinton would be the better candidate while 43% say Obama. Those figures are similar to the national average.

Just 27% of Pennsylvania voters say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. That’s down two points from a month ago. Nationally, the President’s Approval Ratings are at all-time lows. Most Pennsylvania voters—55%--say the President is doing a poor job.

Governor Ed Rendell, a strong Clinton supporter, earns better reviews—41% good or excellent and 23% poor.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.