Wednesday, July 16, 2008

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In Oregon, Barack Obama leads John McCain 46% to 37%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. These results are virtually identical to those from a month ago. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 40%.

These results mark the fourth time in five statewide polls this year that Obama has enjoyed a lead ranging from six to nine percentage points. Once, enjoying a bounce from his participation in Oregon’s Democratic Presidential Primary, he opened a fourteen point lead. Nationally, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show Barack Obama holding a modest lead over John McCain.

Obama is viewed favorably by 62% of Oregon voters, McCain by 55%. For both men, that’s an improvement over the past month.

As with their West Coast neighbors in Washington and California, Oregon voters are less enthusiastic about offshore oil drilling than voters in the rest of the country. Just 51% support offshore oil drilling and only 47% support drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge. These figures are below the national average.

Oregon voters are much closer to the national average when it comes to the question of a federal 55 miles-per-hour speed limit. Thirty-five percent (35%) favor the concept and 56% are opposed.

Fifty percent (50%) of Oregon voters say protecting the environment is more important than reducing the price of gas and oil. Thirty-four percent (34%) disagree and take the opposite view.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especial when the results have a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Obama leads McCain 47% to 38%. A month ago, he led by ten points in the three-poll average.

Oregon, with seven electoral votes, has gone for Democratic candidates in every presidential election since 1988, although in three of those elections the winner had 47% of the vote or less. Sen. John Kerry carried the state with 51% of the vote in 2004 versus 47% who voted for President Bush and 1% for independent candidate Ralph Nader.

Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of carrying the state again. At the time this poll was released, Oregon is a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Just 29% of Oregon voter say that President is doing a good or excellent job, down from 32% last month. Fifty-three percent (53%) say he is doing a poor job, unchanged from a month ago.

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