Monday, November 03, 2008

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It’s all even in Ohio.

The final Fox News/Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state before Election Day shows John McCain and Barack Obama each attracting 49% of the vote. Last week, Obama held a modest lead in the Buckeye State.

Obama leads among those who have already voted while McCain is projected to pick up more votes from those who show up at the polls on Tuesday.

However, among the six Battleground States polled in the final days of Election 2008, Ohio is one of the two states where McCain gained ground (the other was Florida). This helps explain why the campaigns have had such a strong presence in the state during the closing days of Election 2008. In the last six Fox News/Rasmussen Reports Ohio polls, Obama and McCain have been within two points of each other five times. Neither man has reached the 50% level of support in any of the past six Ohio surveys.

McCain attracts 64% of the vote from Evangelical Christians, 53% from other Protestants, 53% from Catholics, and just 28% from everybody else.

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Ohio voters, Obama by 50%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Little change was found this week in Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina, and Virginia. Obama now leads in two of the six key battleground states while the candidates are tied or within a point of each other in four. At one level, that’s an improvement for McCain. Last week, he was even in just two states while trailing in four.

But while it’s an improvement for McCain, this week’s results don’t alter the underlying dynamic of the race. All six of these battleground states were Republican states in 2004, and McCain probably needs to win all six to capture the White House.
Ohio, with 20 Electoral College votes, is a critical swing state, especially for McCain who is battling down to the wire in several traditionally Republican states. George W. Bush carried the Buckeye State in 2000 and again in 2004, after Democrat Bill Clinton won it in the two previous elections.
Ohio is also currently embroiled in legal controversy because about 200,000 of 666,000 voters who have registered in the state since the first of the year listed driver's license or Social Security numbers that don't match records in other government databases.
Nationally, Obama continues to hold a modest but stable lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in the Electoral College projections.
Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning Ohio this November. Ohio is currently considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings.
Rasmussen Reports and Fox News Channel also have have released several other battleground state polls today, including final numbers from Florida, Colorado, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia. Rasmussen Reports also released final results from New Jersey.

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obamaleads 286 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Alaska, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, llinois, Indiana, Iowa,Kansas, Kentucky, Kansas, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

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