Thursday, July 17, 2008

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The race is still close between John McCain and Barack Obama in the traditionally red state of North Carolina. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 45% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. When “leaners” are included, McCain leads 48% to 45%.

McCain led by two points last month and by three points in May. The two candidates were tied at 47% in April. North Carolina has voted for Republican candidates in nine out of the last ten Presidential elections. In 2004, George W. Bush won the state by a 56% to 44% margin. The race between Obama and McCain is also very close on the national level, where Obama is currently leading 44% to 42% in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In the Tar Heel State, McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans and 18% of Democrats. Obama is backed by 69% of Democrats and just 7% of Republicans. Among unaffiliated voters, Obama leads 43% to 33%.

McCain leads 48% to 39% among men, but trails Obama 44% to 42% among women.

Favorability ratings for both candidates have improved slightly over the past month. McCain is viewed favorably by 57%, up two points from last month, and unfavorably by 40%, down two points from last month. Obama’s numbers are 52% favorable, up from 49%, and 45% unfavorable, down from 50% last month.

Opinions about Obama are much stronger than those of McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) have a Very Favorable view of the Democrat, while 29% have a Very Unfavorable view. McCain’s ratings are 23% Very Favorable and 16% Very Unfavorable.

Rasmussen Markets data gives McCain a % chance of winning North Carolina’s Electoral College votes this fall. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join, so add your voice to the collective wisdom. The Tar Heel state is listed as “Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Not surprisingly, the plurality of voters (47%) in North Carolina chooses the economy as the most important issue of Election 2008. National Security comes in a distant second with 28% of voters who believe that is the top issue.

Most voters nationwide believe high gas and oil prices are the biggest threat to the economy today. In North Carolina, 60% support the idea of drilling in offshore oil wells and 55% believe this practice would reduce the price of gas. Fifty-two percent (52%) think the U.S. should allow drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge, while 36% oppose this idea.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) of North Carolina voters oppose lowering the national speed limit to 55 mph, and 60% do not think this law would reduce the price of gas. Those figures are similar to the national average. Forty-five (45%) of voters in North Carolina believe it is more important to reduce gas prices than to protect the environment. Thirty-nine percent (39%) take the opposite view.

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Four years ago, President Bush won the Tar Heel State handedly. Now, just 33% of the state’s voters think the President is doing a good or excellent job. Nearly half (48%) say he is doing a poor job.

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