Thursday, August 21, 2008

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While John McCain has gained ground on Barack Obama in a number of states over the past month, little has changed in New Mexico.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Obama ahead 47% to McCain's 41%. A month ago, it was Obama by five percentage points. The stability of the race is emphasized by the fact that Obama’s support has been at 46% or 47% of the vote in three straight surveys. McCain has been at 41% for three of the past four months.

Both candidates are viewed favorably by 56% of the state’s voters. Last month, both were viewed favorably by 57%. The presidential race also has been stable on a national basis for the past several weeks. Obama and McCain have consistently been within a point or two of each other in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

When “leaners” are included in the current New Mexico totals, it’s Obama 48%, McCain 44%. Leaners are those who don’t initially express a preference for one of the major candidates. But, when asked a follow-up question, they do.

McCain is supported by 93% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 80% of Democrats. The Democrat has a very slight edge among unaffiliated voters. McCain enjoys a modest advantage among white voters while Obama has a 19-point lead among Hispanics. Full demographic crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Time is running out to save on Premium Memberships. Sign up now and save. Learn More.

Rasmussen Markets shows that Democrats are currently given a % chance of winning New Mexico’s Five Electoral College votes this fall. President Bush won the state by 6,000 votes out of nearly 750,000 in Election 2004. Immediately prior to release of this poll, New Mexico was rated as “Leans Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Democrat Tom Udall leads Republican Steve Pearce 51% to 41% for the seat being vacated by New Mexico's longtime GOP Senator Pete Domenici, but the race has tightened considerably in the past month.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of New Mexico voters say it is more important to find new sources of energy than it is to cut back on the amount of energy we use. Thirty percent (30%) disagree and say reducing consumption is most important. Those figures are very close to the national average. Voters nationally believe that McCain’s priority is to find more energy while Obama is more interested in reducing consumption.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say media bias is a bigger problem in politics than large campaign contributions. Thirty-nine percent (39%) hold the opposite view. Forty-two percent (42%) say lobbyists and contributors have too much influence on McCain. An identical percentage—42%--say the same about Obama. Those figures are also close to the national average.

While President Bush carried New Mexico four years ago, just 35% now say he is doing a good or excellent job.

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