Thursday, October 09, 2008

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Barack Obama is now ahead in every state won by John Kerry four years ago, and New Jersey is no exception.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 50% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%. That’s similar to results from a month ago and the month before that.

The economy is the top issue of Election 2008, and just eight percent (8%) of New Jersey voters rate the nation’s economic condition as good or excellent. Sixty-seven percent (67%) say it’s poor. Only four percent (4%) believe things are getting better while 86% say they are getting worse.

Fifty percent (50%) of Garden State voters trust Obama more than McCain on economic matters while 41% hold the opposite view.

Obama and McCain are even among investors, but Obama leads by more than a two-to-one margin among non-investors (see full demographic crosstabs).

McCain and Obama are each viewed favorably by 56% of New Jersey voters and unfavorably by 42%.

As for their running mates, Joseph Biden earns positive reviews from 57% while 48% say the same about Sarah Palin.

McCain is supported by 87% of Republicans while Obama gets the vote from just 74% of Democrats. The two men split the unaffiliated vote.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an % chance of winning New Jersey’s 15 electoral votes this November. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry New Jersey where no Republican has won a statewide office since 1997. John Kerry carried New Jersey over President Bush -- 53% to 46% -- in 2004.

Just 23% now say President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job while 59% rate his job performance as poor.

New Jersey remains ranked as 'Likely Democratic' in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

As this poll is released, Obama has the edge in every state won by Kerry four years ago. However, of the states won by George Bush, McCain is trailing in four, and five others are considered a toss-up. As a result, Electoral College projections now show Obama leading 248-163. When “leaners” are included, Obama leads 300-174. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House.

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

The New Jersey survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.