John McCain holds statistically insignificant leads over both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in New Jersey. It’s McCain 45%, Clinton 42% and McCain 46%, Obama 45%. This reflects a significant change from a month ago when Clinton held a double-digit lead over McCain.

McCain now leads Clinton by twenty-nine points among men in the Garden State. Clinton leads McCain by twenty-one points among women. With Obama as the nominee, the gender gap is smaller—McCain leads by nine among men but trails by seven among women.

New Jersey has not voted for a Republican Presidential candidate in twenty years. John Kerry won the state by seven percentage points in Election 2004. Democrats enjoyed double digit victories in Election 2000 and Election 1996. If McCain is able to make the state competitive this fall, it could be a very positive sign for his campaign. However, in recent years, several GOP candidates have done well in spring polls only to see their hopes fade in the fall.

McCain will get no help from the President in New Jersey. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Garden State voters say George W. Bush is doing a poor job as President. Just 28% say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Seventeen percent (17%) offer a more neutral assessment and say he is doing a fair job.

McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of New Jersey voters, unchanged from a month ago. The presumptive Republican nominee has recently released his first general election campaign commercial and it focuses heavily on his personal life story.

Obama is viewed favorably by 58%, Clinton by 50%. For Obama, that’s a six-point improvement over the past month. For Clinton, it’s a six-point decline.

Forty-seven percent (47%) of New Jersey voters say that the economy is the most important voting issue of Election 2008. Just 12% rate the economy as good or excellent. Forty-nine percent (49%) rate the economy as poor. Only 7% say it is getting better while 76% say it is getting worse. These figures are similar to the national average. The Rasmussen Consumer Index shows that consumer and investor confidence is near the lowest levels of the past seven years.

Twenty-two percent (22%) say that the War in Iraq is the top issue while another 11% opt for the broader topic—the War on Terror. Forty-six percent (46%) say the U.S. and its allies are winning the while 24% believe the terrorists have the edge. That’s slightly more pessimistic than the nation-at-large. Thirty-two percent (32%) expect the situation in Iraq to get better over the next six months. Thirty-nine percent (39%) hold the opposite view.

Sixty-three percent (63%) believe that American society is generally fair and decent. Among these voters, McCain leads both Democrats by wide margins.

Twenty-five percent (25%) believe that American society is generally unfair and discriminatory. Both Democrats lead McCain among these voters.

At the time this poll was released, New Jersey was rated as Likely Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. The calculator factors in poll results, results from Rasmussen Markets, voting history, and other factors to determine a state’s rating.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are strongly favored to win New Jersey’s 15 Electoral College votes (current prices: Democrat % Republican %). Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the Democratic nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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