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New Hampshire: Romney 34% Giuliani 15% McCain 15% Huckabee 14%
Friday, November 30, 2007
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In New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 34% support and a nineteen-point lead. Making the most of his home field advantage, Romney has steadily increased his lead from fifteen points earlier in November, nine-points in October and three-points in September. The new primary election poll shows a virtual three-way tie for second place between former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Senator John McCain at 15% and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee at 14%. For Giuliani and McCain, those figures are a very slight dip from earlier in the month while Huckabee has gained four more percentage points. Support for Romney and Huckabee in the current survey is the highest yet recorded in a Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire survey. For Giuliani, the 15% reflects his lowest level of support in the six New Hampshire primary election polls. New results for the Democratic Primary will be released on Saturday. Fifty-seven percent (57%) of McCain’s supporters are certain they will vote for him on January 8. Fifty-four percent (54%) of Giuliani’s supporters are that certain along with 49% of those for Huckabee and 48% of Romney voters. At the other extreme, 15% of Giuliani’s voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind before voting. That figure is 13% for supporters of Romney, McCain, and Huckabee. Huckabee attracts 39% of the Evangelical Christian vote in New Hampshire while Romney earns 20% support from that group. Whether Huckabee is simply enjoying fifteen minutes of fame or has become a serious contender for the Republican nomination remains to be seen, but his campaign is certainly enjoying the ride at the moment. In September, his long-shot campaign attracted just 4% of New Hampshire voters and even less support nationally. Now, in addition to his strong showing in New Hampshire, the bass-guitar playing candidate is a frontrunner in Iowa and essentially tied for second nationally. However, with increased support comes increased challenges. Yesterday, a group that helped rally public opposition to the Senate immigration bill called Huckabee’s record on the immigration issue a “disaster.” (The Senate immigration bill was defeated when the Senate surrendered to public opinion). Twenty-five percent (25%) of New Hampshire’s Primary Voters name immigration as the most important voting issue. The previous Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Hampshire found strong support for enforcement measures to reduce illegal immigration. Eighty percent (80%) of Republican primary voters believe that when police pull someone over for a traffic violation, they should routinely check to see if that person is in the country legally. If the person is discovered to be an illegal immigrant, 73% believe that person should be deported. As for other issues, 24% of New Hampshire voters say the economy is the most important voting issue. Twenty percent (20%) say national security is tops and another 15% believe the War in Iraq is the most important issue. One surprise in the data is that Romney holds a solid lead over Giuliani among those who say national security is the most important issue. In Iowa, Huckabee attracted more national security voters than Giuliani. Romney is viewed favorably by 80% of Likely Primary voters, McCain by 75%, and Giuliani by 71%. For McCain, that positive assessment reflects a remarkable comeback from the summer when he was viewed favorably by just 53% of Likely Republican Primary Voters. At the time, he was also viewed unfavorably by 43%. Huckabee is now viewed favorably by 60% and unfavorably by 31% of Likely Primary Voters in New Hampshire. Fred Thompon’s decline has been so dramatic that his favorable ratings are closer to Ron Paul’s than to the frontrunners. Just 50% have a favorable opinion of Thompson while 44% say the opposite. In September, Thompson earned 19% of the vote in New Hampshire. That has fallen to just 3% today. In fact, Thompson now trails Ron Paul who earns 8% support in the latest poll. Paul is viewed favorably by 36% of Likely Republican Primary Voters and unfavorably by 57%. The Texas Congressman brings a surprisingly large campaign bank account to the state and his campaign will present an interesting wild card for voters and other candidates. See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 881 Likely GOP Voters
TOP STORIESVoters’ Opinions of Congressional Leaders Remain Steady Democrats & Unaffiliateds More Likely To Be Unemployed Than Republicans To Create Jobs, Voters Say Cut Taxes and Stop Spending Brown Ensnared in His Own Tapegate Trap By Debra J. Saunders Support for Congressional Health Care Proposal Up to 47%, 49% Opposed Republicans Maintain Steady Lead on Generic Ballot 42% Rate Geithner’s Performance As Poor 47% Trust Private Sector More Than Government To Keep Health Care Costs Down, Quality Up Voters Continue to See Deficit Reduction as Top Priority Advertisement
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