New Hampshire’s biggest claim to fame in Presidential politics is its historic role as host to the first-in-the-nation Primary. However, it’s also become a hotly contested swing state in general elections offering Electoral College votes to the winner.

John Kerry won the state by a single percentage point (50% to 49%) in Election 2004 while George Bush won the state by an equally slim margin (48% to 47%) four years earlier.

In the first statewide general election poll since Arizona Senator John McCain became the GOP’s presumptive nominee, New Hampshire might be very competitive once again in the fall campaign—especially if New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. If Illinois Senator Barack Obama captures the Democratic nomination, he will begin the race in New Hampshire with a lead.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll shows Clinton leading McCain 43% to 41% in New Hampshire. At the same time, Obama leads McCain 49% to 36%. National polling, updated daily, currently shows the same general trend with Obama performing better than Clinton in match-ups with McCain.

In New Hampshire, McCain currently trails Clinton by twenty-five points among women and Obama by twenty-six. Among men, McCain leads Clinton by nineteen while holding just a single point advantage over Obama.

McCain wins 78% of Republican votes when matched against Clinton but just 64% against Obama.

Overall, Obama is viewed favorably by 62% of New Hampshire voters. McCain earns positive reviews from 58% and Clinton from 48%.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of New Hampshire voters have a Very Favorable opinion of Obama. Just 21% are that upbeat about Clinton while 14% say the same about McCain.

Thirty-four percent (34%) have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Eighteen percent (18%) hold that view of Obama while 14% are that pessimistic about McCain.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of New Hampshire voters name the economy as the top voting issue for Election 2008. Nationally, consumer confidence has fallen to the lowest levels since the 9/11 terrorist attacks nearly seven years ago. Among voters in New Hampshire who consider the economy most important, Obama leads McCain by eighteen points. Clinton leads McCain by five.

The War in Iraq (19%), immigration (13%), health care (11%), and national security (10%) are also seen as top issues. McCain handily leads both Democrats among those who consider national security and immigration as the top issue. Both Democrats have a big advantage among those who consider the War in Iraq and health care as the top issue.

McCain won New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary on January 8 by five points over Mitt Romney. In the Granite State’s Democratic Presidential Primary, Clinton pulled off one of the biggest upsets in modern political history to narrowly defeat Obama. Polling leading up to that day had suggested Obama was poised for victory (What Happened to the Polls in New Hampshire).

Last fall, Clinton and McCain were tied in New Hampshire. Obama was not included in that round of polling.

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