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New Hampshire: Obama 31% Clinton 28%
Wednesday, December 12, 2007
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In the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination, New Hampshire has joined Iowa in the too close to call category. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone poll in the state finds Barack Obama with support from 31% of Likely Primary Voters while Hillary Clinton has earned the vote from 28%. Two weeks ago, Clinton had a seven-point lead in New Hampshire. A month ago, she was up by ten percentage points. The latest poll found little change in support for other candidates--John Edwards now attracts 17% support, Bill Richardson 8%, Joe Biden 4% and Dennis Kucinich 3%. Mike Gravel and Chris Dodd split a point between them and 7% are undecided. A separate survey released earlier today shows Clinton leading Obama in Iowa by three percentage points. Last week, Clinton’s lead over Obama in South Carolina disappeared. Nationally, Clinton continues to hold a solid lead in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll, but her support has been consistently below the 40% level in recent weeks. In the current survey, Obama has a 14-point advantage over Clinton among independent voters likely to vote in the Democratic Primary. That’s up from a 3-point edge among independents in late November. The survey also finds that 39% of the voters on January 8 will be independents. That’s up from 29% in the previous survey. Among Democrats likely to vote in the Primary, Clinton leads 33% to 29%. She led by eleven points among Democrats in the earlier survey. One of the great challenges in polling for the New Hampshire Primary is determining who will show up and vote. Independent voters can participate in either the Republican or the Democratic Primary. Currently, by nearly a 2-to-1 margin, independent voters are opting for the Democratic Primary. This participation could be impacted by the results of the Iowa caucuses. Over the past two weeks, the interest of independent voters in both primaries have increased. Among voters who are “certain” they will vote on January 8, Obama leads Clinton 31% to 27% with John Edwards at 18%. However, Clinton’s supporters are a bit more committed than Obama or Edwards voters. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of Clinton’s supporters are “certain” they will vote for her. Sixty percent (60%) of Obama’s supporters are that certain along with 55% of those who plan to vote for Edwards. Among those who are certain they will not change their mind, it’s Clinton 31% Obama 30% and Edwards 15%. Edwards is the second choice for 23% of New Hampshire’s Likely Democratic Primary Voters. Obama is the second choice for 21%, Clinton for 15%, and Richardson 14%. Ten percent (10%) of Likely Voters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind prior to voting on January 8. Among these voters, Clinton is the second choice for 31%, Obama for 24%, and Edwards for 15%. Clinton leads Obama by just four points among women, down from a fourteen point advantage two weeks ago. Obama leads by eleven among men, up from a three point edge in late November. Thirty-six percent (36%) of the Likely Democratic Primary Voters name the War in Iraq as the most important voting issue. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it’s the economy while 19% named health care. Those figures are little changed from the previous survey. Eighty-four (84%) of New Hampshire’s Likely Democratic Primary Voters have a favorable opinion of Obama. Seventy-nine percent (79%) say the same about Edwards. Clinton is viewed favorably by 72%. Those figures include 46% with a Very Favorable opinion of Obama, 34% with a Very Favorable opinion of Edwards, and 33% with a Very Favorable opinion of Clinton. Richardson is viewed favorably by 68%, Biden by 57%, and Kucinich by 43%. Rasmussen Reports will release new data on New Hampshire’s Republican Presidential Primary on Thursday. Mitt Romney had a solid lead in the previous Rasmussen Reports New Hampshire poll. Data released yesterday shows Mike Huckabee with a growing lead in Iowa. Huckabee also leads in South Carolina and there is a three-way tie in Michigan. Nationally, Rudy Giuliani and Huckabee lead the Republican race in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 841 Likely Dem Primary Voters
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