Wednesday, May 21, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Nevada shows John McCain holding a modest lead over Barack Obama in the race for the state’s Electoral College votes. McCain attracts support from 46% of the state’s likely voters while Obama earns 40% of the vote. A month ago, McCain had a five point advantage.

Obama currently attracts just 65% support from Democrats in the state. That is at least partly a reflection of the ongoing competition between Obama and Clinton. The Nevada election poll found a continuing major divide among the state’s Democratic voters. While 32% believe it is time for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race, 29% say the same about Obama. A recent national survey found that ongoing support for the former First Lady is so intense that 29% of Democrats want her to run as an Independent Presidential candidate in November.

It is likely that Obama’s support from within his own party will increase once he is fully recognized as the nominee. How much they will improve depends upon how the end game is handled. The key for Obama will be to make Clinton supporters believe that their candidate was treated fairly and with respect. If he can accomplish that goal, his support among Democrats will dramatically improve.

This is a difficult time for Clinton supporters. Over a week ago, a Rasmussen Reports analysis noted that the race for the nomination is effectively over.

Rasmussen Markets data immediately prior to release of this poll showed Nevada to be very competitive. These results are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants and currently show that Republicans are given a % chance of winning Nevada this November. Expectations for Democrats are at %.

Nevada has cast its Electoral College Votes for the winning candidate in seven straight Presidential Elections. The last four have been very competitive with nobody carrying the state by more than four percent of the popular vote. As the poll is released, Nevada is considered a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

McCain is now viewed favorably by 53% of voters in the state. That’s down from 56% a month ago but up from 49% two months ago.

Obama currently gets positive reviews from 47% of the state’s voters. That’s unchanged from a month ago but down from 53% in March.

The economy is the top issue for 38% of Nevada voters followed by immigration (18%), the War in Iraq (17%), and National Security (10%).

Obama leads by twenty-five points among those who consider the economy most important and by sixteen among those who consider Iraq most important.

McCain leads by twenty-six points among those who say immigration is the top issue and by a 90% to 10% margin among those who see National Security as the highest priority.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Nevada voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the War. Forty-four percent (44%) hold the opposite view. Nationally, 52% say bringing the troops home is most important.

Forty-nine percent (49%) say it’s at least somewhat likely the U.S. will win the war if McCain is elected. Just 18% see victory as that likely with a President Obama.

Fifty-three percent (53%) say the troops are at least somewhat likely to come home within four years if Obama is elected. Thirty-five percent (35%) say the same if McCain wins in November.

Nevada Democrats are evenly divided as to which Democrat would be the stronger general election candidate against John McCain. Forty-four percent (44%) say Obama would be the better candidate and 44% say Clinton would be better.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of all Nevada voters say that President George W. Bush is doing a good or an excellent job. Forty-nine percent (49%) say he is doing a poor job.

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