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Most Voters Made Up Their Minds Weeks Ago
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So when did voters really decide how they were going to vote?

Seventy percent (70%) told Rasmussen Reports on Election Day that they decided more than a month ago. Sixty-nine percent (69%) of voters for John McCain and 72% of Barack Obama’s voters decided then.

McCain’s electoral fortunes came crashing down in our presidential tracking polls six weeks ago when Wall Street’s meltdown took over the front pages.

Fourteen percent (14%) decided whom to vote for within the last month. This group included 13% of McCain voters and 15% of those who voted for Obama.

Among the four percent (4%) who made a decision on whom to vote for within the last week and the six percent (6%) who decided within the last few days, Obama voters outnumbered those for McCain by two-to-one.

Just five percent (5%) said they decided on Election Day. These last-minute deciders were evenly divided between five percent (5%) of Obama’s voters and five percent (5%) of McCain’s.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Seventy-one percent (71%) of white voters and 62% of black voters made up their minds more than a month ago, while five percent (5%) of whites and seven percent (7%) of blacks say they decided on Election Day.

Our own polling found the race remarkable stable in the last six weeks. Obama received between 50% and 52% of the vote for the last 40 days of the campaign. The race tightened a bit during the final two weeks, but Obama still received either 51% or 52% of the vote on 13 of the last 14 days.

Seventy-four percent (74%) of women made up their minds more than a month ago, compared to 65% of men. Women have consistently supported Obama more solidly than men nationwide. Men generally preferred McCain more.

Over 60 percent of voters have regularly rated Obama as a liberal and McCain as a conservative. Those who made their decision on whom to vote for over a month ago reflect these views. Eighty-eight percent (88%) of liberals and 71% of conservatives, compared to 55% of moderates, decided whom they were going to vote for back then.

While the economy has outdistanced national security as the most important campaign issue among voters nationwide for weeks, the two issues were much closer among the early decision-makers. Sixty-eight percent (68%) of those who said the economy was the most important issue decided their vote more than a month ago, and so did 65% of those for whom national security was most important.

Seventy percent (70%) of those who ranked the economy as the number one issue voted for Obama. Seventy-three percent (73%) of those for whom national security was most important backed McCain.

A majority (54%) – including 52% of McCain voters and 59% of Obama voters -- said America’s best days are in the future. This was the view of 53% of those who decided on their vote more than a month ago and 62% of those who decided on Election Day.

Voters were evenly divided over whether they preferred a candidate who opposes all tax increase or one who would raise taxes only on the rich. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of McCain voters favored the anti-tax candidate, while 70% supported the candidate who will raises taxes on the rich, as the president-elect championed in his campaign. Fifty-two percent (52%) of those who decided on Election Day favored the candidate who will tax the rich.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Democrats made their voting decision more than a month ago, compared to 70% of Republicans and 57% of unaffiliated voters. Eleven percent (11%) of unaffiliateds decided on Election Day versus four percent (4%) of GOP voters and two percent (2%) of Democrats.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 1,000 Likely Voters
November 4, 2008

When did you finally make up your mind about how you would vote?

Today

5%

Within Last Few Days

6%

Within Last Week

4%

Within Last Month

14%

More than a Month Ago

70%

Not Sure

1%

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