Monday, October 13, 2008

Email to a Friend

Barack Obama holds a 50% to 47% lead in Missouri for the second week in a row, according to the latest Fox News/Rasmussen Reports survey in the state.

Obama took the lead in the state a week ago, as national trends began to move the Democrat’s way. In September at this time, McCain was ahead by six. The Republican had led for most of the year in the Show-Me State.

Nationally, with the steady drumbeat of bad economic news, Obama has opened a stable lead over McCain in both the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections.

In Missouri, both candidates have over 90% support from members of their own party and unaffiliated voters are evenly divided. Twenty percent (20%) of Missouri voters say they may change their minds between now and Election Day on who to vote for, including 37% of unaffiliated voters.

Obama currently leads by two points among men and five points among women.

McCain leads by 26 points among evangelical Christians and by five points among Catholics. Protestant voters are evenly divided. Obama is ahead by over 40 points among members of all other Missouri voters (see full demographic crosstabs).

Obama is viewed favorably by 57% of Missouri voters and unfavorably by 42%. Fifty-five percent (55%) have a favorable view of McCain, while 44% regard him unfavorably. These numbers are virtually unchanged from a week ago.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a % chance of winning Missouri’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall.
George W. Bush won the state by seven points in Election 2004 and by three points four years earlier. But Missouri remains a “Toss-Up” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Missouri voters rate the economy as the number one issue in the election, while 18% say national security is most important. On the issues of the economy and jobs, voters trust Obama over McCain 52% to 43%. McCain has the edge in voter trust 50% to 45% in the areas of national security and the War on Terror.

In terms of overall voter trust, it’s McCain 47% to Obama 45%. Forty-eight percent (48%) say they would ask advice from McCain if faced with the toughest decision of their lives, while 44% would ask Obama.

Thirty-three percent (33%) say they would be extremely comfortable with Obama as president, but 37% say they would be not at all comfortable if that happened. Only 22% would be extremely comfortable if McCain was president, while 32% say they would be not at all comfortable with the Republican in the White House.

Obama’s running mate, longtime Delaware Senator Joseph Biden, ranks better than both candidates at the top of their tickets, while Sarah Palin, the GOP vice presidential candidate, rates worse.

Thirty-four percent (34%) would be extremely comfortable with Biden as vice president, and 27% would be not at all comfortable. Twenty-four percent (24%) say they would be extremely comfortable with Palin elected to the number two post, but twice as many (47%) say they would not be comfortable with that at all.

New polling on the presidential race is also being released today from Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Missouri. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Missouri voters say Republican Governor Matt Blunt, who is not seeking reelection this year, is doing a good or excellent job. Thirty-four percent (34%) rate Blunt’s performance as poor. In a survey on the gubernatorial race last month, Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon was well ahead of GOP Congressman Kenny Hulshof.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) of Missouri voters rate President Bush’s job performance as good or excellent, while 53% say his performance is poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.