Thursday, June 05, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows that Barack Obama and John McCain are essentially even if the race for the Show-Me State’s Electoral College votes. Obama currently attracts 43% of the vote while McCain earns 42%. This survey was conducted Tuesday night, the night that Obama clinched the Democratic nomination.

That’s a big improvement for the Democrat who trailed McCain by six percentage points a month ago and fifteen points in March. The March survey was conducted shortly after Obama’s former Pastor, Jeremiah Wright, became a controversial part of the national dialogue. In February, before either Obama or McCain had wrapped up their nominations, McCain’s advantage over Obama was just two percentage points.

The new poll shows the number of voters who say they will cross party lines has already started to decline. Just 13% of Missouri Democrats currently say they will vote for McCain, down from 21% a month ago. Obama attracts only 8% of GOP voters, down from 14%.

This month, Obama leads by seven-percentage points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Last month, McCain had a modest advantage among unaffiliated voters. Twenty-six percent (26%) of unaffiliated voters are not supporting either major party candidate at this time.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, McCain leads Obama 47% to 41%. Last month’s three-poll average showed McCain up by seven.

McCain is currently viewed favorably by 55% of Missouri voters, Obama by 48%. Those figures have changed little over the past month.

Missouri is a classic swing state in Presidential Elections that almost always awards its Electoral College Votes to the candidate who wins the White House. George W. Bush won those 11 Electoral Votes four years ago by winning the popular vote 53% to 46%.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Missouri’s Eleven Electoral College Votes this fall. George W. Bush won the state twice by double digits. Missouri is a classic swing state that almost always votes for the winning Presidential candidate. At the time this poll was released, Missouri is ranked as “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Missouri voters say it’s more important to get the troops home from Iraq than to win the war. Thirty-eight percent (38%) hold the opposite view and say victory in Iraq is the higher priority.

Forty-nine percent (49%) say victory is at least somewhat likely if McCain is elected. Just 20% say it is likely with a President Obama. However, 60% say that a President Obama is likely to get the troops home within four years. Just 35% say such a result is likely from a President Obama. National polling shows that voters see a huge difference between the candidates on this issue. Overwhelming majorities believe that getting the troops home is Obama’s top priority and that McCain sees victory as more important.

Just 11% of Missouri voters believe that the federal government represents the will of the American people while 75% say it does not. Seventy-two percent (72%) say the federal government has become a special interest group that looks out primarily for its own interests.

Just 47% believe American elections are fair to voters. However, 82% are confident that their ballots will be accurately counted and the appropriate candidates declared the winner.

Four years ago, George W. Bush won 53% of the vote in Missouri. Today, just half that number (26%) say he is doing a good or an excellent job. Fifty-six percent (56%) say he is doing a poor job.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

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