Thursday, August 14, 2008

Email to a Friend

Much of Barack Obama’s 12-point lead over John McCain has disappeared in Minnesota. He is now ahead of his Republican rival by only four percentage points 46% to 42%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Minnesota voters.

With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads 49% to 45% (Demographic Crosstabs available for Premium Members.)

Last month the Democrat had a 49% to 37% lead on McCain. In June he was ahead 52% to 39%.
McCain is now supported by 91% of Republicans, up from 79% a month ago. Obama earns the vote from 89% of Democrats, down two points from last month. Among unaffiliated Minnesota voters, the candidates are essentially even.

Obama’s 19-point lead among women voters last month is now down to 13. McCain has moved ahead among male voters who now favor the Republican 47% to 42%. Last month, Obama had a slight edge among men.

McCain is now regarded favorably by 60% of Minnesota voters, unfavorably by 39%. Obama is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 42%.

Picking Minnesota’s Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty as his running mate might cost McCain more votes in the state than he will gain. Thirty-four percent (34%) of Minnesota voters say they are less likely to vote for the GOP candidate if Pawlenty is the vice presidential nominee, while 28% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain. Thirty-five percent (35%) say it will have no impact on how they vote.

Nearly a third of unaffiliated voters (32%), however, say putting Pawlenty on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to vote for it, while 22% say it makes them more likely to vote for McCain.

Only 11% say McCain is Very Likely to pick Pawlenty.

Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidates in the last eight elections. John Kerry won the state 51% to 48% over President Bush in 2004.

The Senate race in Minnesota between incumbent Republican Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken remains a toss-up.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll continues to show a very competitive race.
Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats currently have an % chance of winning Minnesota’s 10 Electoral College votes in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota is considered a “Likely Democratic” state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Like voters nationwide, 42% in Minnesota rank economic issues as their number one concern in this election cycle, roughly the same as last month. National security, which topped election concerns in 2004, is now viewed that way by only 23%.

A solid majority of Minnesota voters (71%) think the upcoming Republican National Convention in St. Paul will have a positive short-term impact on business and tourism. Far fewer (45%) believe the convention will have long-term impact in those areas, with nearly as many (40%) saying it will have no impact.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe the St. Paul Police Department is as prepared as it can be for the September 1-4 convention, but 15% do not think so. A quarter of voters (26%) are not sure.

President Bush’s job performance ratings have improved slightly in Minnesota. Now 33% rate his performance good or excellent, compared to 29% a month ago. Forty-nine percent (49%) give the president poor marks versus 55% in July.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free)… let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.