Wednesday, August 20, 2008

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Barack Obama leads John McCain comfortably 53% to 41% in the reliably Democratic state of Maryland, according to Rasmussen Reports’ first telephone survey in the state since Hillary Clinton dropped out of the presidential race.

With “leaners” factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 53% to 43%.

In early January, the last time Rasmussen Reports surveyed state voters, Obama led McCain 48% to 42%. But against Hillary Clinton, McCain was the front-runner 45% to 43%. Obama crushed Clinton 60% to 37% in the February 12 Maryland Democratic Primary.

Eighty percent (80%) of Maryland Democrats and 10 percent of the state’s Republicans now support Obama. McCain has the backing of 86% of Republicans and 15% of Democrats. Undecided voters give McCain the edge 49% to 42%.

Nationally, the two candidates are very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Similar to other states, women voters in Maryland support Obama more than men. The Democrat leads among female voters by a sizable 59% to 33% margin, while McCain leads 51% to 45% among men.
Ninety-three percent (93%) of African-American voters support Obama, soon to be the first black nominated as the presidential candidate of a major political party. Fifty-three percent (53%) of white voters support McCain.

Sixty-one percent of Maryland voters have a favorable opinion of Obama, including 38% who rate their view of him as Very Favorable. He is viewed unfavorably by 39%, with a quarter (25%) saying their view of him is Very Unfavorable.

McCain is regarded favorably by 56%, with 24% Very Favorable. Forty-three percent (43%) view him unfavorably, but only 18% class their view as Very Unfavorable.

The Democratic presidential nominee has carried Maryland by substantial margins in the last four elections. Democratic nominee John Kerry defeated President Bush in 2004 by 13 percentage points.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Obama is currently given a % chance of winning Maryland’s 10 Electoral College votes in November. At the time this poll was released, Maryland is ranked as “Safely Democratic” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Again, like voters in other states, a plurality of voters (39%) in Maryland say economic issues are the most important in the current election cycle, while 26% rank national security as their chief concern.
Marylanders are equally divided -- at 46% each -- on the importance of finding new sources of energy versus reducing energy consumption.

Forty-seven percent (47%) say America has the best economy in the world, but nearly as many (43%) disagree. Nearly half (48%) also believe that reporters make the economy seem worse than it is.

Two-thirds of voters (67%) think political reporters try to help the candidate they want to win, and this year 45% say most are trying to help Obama. Thirty-two percent (32%) feel that reporters offer unbiased coverage, but only 11% think they are trying to help McCain.

Paralleling a growing national trend, 52% of Maryland voters say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, as opposed to 18% who say the terrorists are winning and 24% who think it’s a draw. Fifty-five percent (55%) believe that Iraq is not the central front in the war on terror, and 44% agree with Obama that Afghanistan is that front. Forty-six percent think Afghanistan is a greater threat to U.S. national security than Iraq, but 30% give Iraq the nod.

Governor Martin O’Malley, a Democrat, is given good or excellent marks for his job performance by 37%. Thirty-one percent (31%) rate his work as poor.

President Bush who receives record low marks nationwide for his job performance is rated good or excellent by 32% of Maryland voters. Fifty-one percent (51%) say he is doing a poor job.

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