Wednesday, August 13, 2008

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Barack Obama has narrowed the gap slightly, but John McCain still leads his Democratic opponent by 15 percentage points 52% to 37% in the reliably red state of Kansas.

When “leaners” are included, the Republican presidential candidate is ahead 55% to 41%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Kansas voters.

In mid-July, McCain had a 20-point lead over Obama 52% to 32%. Obama was within 10 points of McCain in June just after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Also in Kansas, incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts is maintaining a solid 55% to 36% lead over Democratic challenger Jim Slattery. Nationally, Obama is maintaining a modest lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

In Kansas, both presidential candidates have attracted more support from their respective parties. McCain is now backed by 83% of Kansas Republicans, Obama by 76% of the state’s Democrats.
Unaffiliated voters are evenly divided – 38% for McCain, 37% for Obama – with 14% preferring an unspecified third-party candidate and 11% undecided.

For the second month in a row, McCain is viewed favorably by 66% of Kansas voters. Obama ranks favorably with 48%, up four percent from July and nearly identical with where he was in June. Fifty-two percent (52%) have an unfavorable view of Obama, compared to 33% who feel that way about his GOP rival.

Kansas has seldom gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since becoming a state in 1861. The last time was in 1964 when Lyndon Johnson was the Democratic nominee. In 2004, President Bush carried the state by 25 percentage points in a contest that was remarkably close nationwide.

One wild card this year is the state’s popular Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius, who is among those being touted as a possible running mate for Obama.

Rasmussen Markets data gives the Republicans a % chance of carrying Kansas in November. The state remains “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.
Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Kansas voters rank economic issues as their number one election concern, with national security the priority for 28%, much closer than the two poll nationwide.

But like most Americans, 68% think finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy the United States now consumes. Just over half (51%) believe that high gas prices are more likely to reduce energy consumption than government regulation, while 28% believe regulation will have more impact.

Fifty-five percent (55%) say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, versus 18% who say the terrorists are winning. Again, these numbers reflect a growing belief nationwide that the War on Terror is going America’s way.

However, red state or not, 44% of Kansas voters agree with Obama that Afghanistan is the central front in the war on terror, while only 26% believe that of Iraq. Forty-four percent (44%) also say Afghanistan is a greater threat to the national security of the United States than Iraq, but 30% believe Iraq is the bigger threat.

Like last month, Kansas voters are evenly divided on President Bush’s job performance, with 41% rating it good or excellent and the identical number (41%) saying it’s poor.

This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.