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Election 2008: Edwards Leads Giuliani by Seven, Thompson by Eleven
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A new Rasmussen Reports Election 2008 survey shows former Senator John Edwards (D) opening up a seven-point lead of 49% to 42% over former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R). In late June, the two contenders were tied, and earlier in that month Edwards held only a four-point lead.

The national telephone survey also shows Edwards recovering a double-digit advantage over former Senator Fred Thompson (R). Edwards now leads the actor-politician 50% to 39% in the presidential race. That’s a slight improvement for the Democrat compared to his nine point advantage in late June.

These numbers echo those of another recent poll, in which Democratic Senator Barack Obama grained ground as well against both Giuliani and Thompson.

Giuliani and Thompson are frontrunners for the Republican Presidential nomination while Obama and Edwards trail Senator Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic nomination. But both men generally fare better than Clinton in projected contests with leading GOP contenders. Thompson and Giuliani are essentially tied with Clinton in recent surveys. New polling data on Clinton match-ups with the GOP frontrunners will be released next week.

When matched against Giuliani, Edwards does better among men than women. The reverse is true when the match-up is between Edwards and Thompson.

The partisan lines are a bit less clear when Edwards is offered as the Democratic candidate rather than Clinton or Obama. More precisely, Republican voters are currently less opposed to Edwards than either Clinton or Obama. As a result, Giuliani and Thompson each attract only 68% of Republican votes when matched against Edwards.

At the same time, both Republicans are very competitive with Edwards among voters not affiliated with either major party. This suggests that if either leading contender in the fluid GOP field can overcome the doubts of rank-and-file partisans, he might quickly shore up his position in general election match-ups with Edwards.

Edwards is currently viewed favorably by 54% of likely voters, Giuliani by 56%, Thompson by 46%.

While Edwards is currently a distant third in polling for the Democratic nomination, 46% of voters nationwide believe the Democrats will ultimately nominate a white male candidate for President.

A Rasmussen Reports analysis of the Democratic race suggests that it will take a significant gaffe or major policy shift to shake up the current dynamic and challenge Clinton’s frontrunner status. On the GOP side, the race is wide open as nearly half the likely voters support an unannounced candidate or are undecided.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 643 Likely Voters
July 25-26, 2007

Rudy Giuliani (R) vs.
John Edwards (D)

Rudy Giuliani (R)

42%

John Edwards (D)

49%

Fred Thompson (R) vs.
John Edwards (D)

Fred Thompson (R)

39%

John Edwards (D)

50%

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