Saturday, September 27, 2008

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Barack Obama now leads John McCain 51% to 43% in Iowa, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state.

Last month, Obama saw his lead cut to five percentage points after leading by ten in June. Iowa is viewed by some as a swing state, although the 2004 election was the first time in 20 years that the state had gone for the Republican presidential candidate. President Bush carried the state by less than 10,000 votes that year.

The latest numbers show Obama leading 53% to 33% among unaffiliated voters in the state. Though he has a 53% to 40% among women, Obama just edges out McCain among men by a 48% to 45% margin (full demographic crosstabs are available to Premium Members).

Obama is viewed favorably by 56% of Iowa voters and unfavorably by 42%. McCain’s numbers are 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Markets data gives the Democrats a % chance of winning Iowa’s seven Electoral College votes in November. With release of this poll, Iowa moves from “Leans Democrat” to “Likely Democrat” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

Obama’s running mate, Joe Biden, is viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 44%. GOP running mate Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 49%.

Voters in Iowa trust Obama more than McCain to handle the economy by a 47% to 43% margin. However, 62% believe bridging the gap between rich and poor is more important to Obama than creating economic growth. Voters overall think that creating economic growth is more important by a 53% to 36% margin. Voters believe McCain is more concerned with economic growth by a 66% to 11% margin.

Not surprisingly, the majority of voters in Iowa (55%) give the economy a poor rating. Just 13% of voters rate the U.S. economy as good or excellent. Those numbers are similar to those found on the national level. Just 5% of Iowa voters think the economy is getting better, while 80% believe it getting worse.

Investors, who make up 71% of voters in Iowa, favor Obama by a 48% to 45% margin. However, when it comes to the economy, investors trust McCain by a 46% to 44% margin. This week, investor confidence nationally fell to an all-time low.

President Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 31% of Iowa voters, while 51% say he is doing a poor job.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.