Saturday, September 20, 2008

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Indiana is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, but John McCain currently holds a statistically insignificant two-point advantage over the Barack Obama among Hoosiers.

The latest first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows McCain attracting 49% of the vote while Obama earns 47% (crosstabs available for Premium Members). A month ago, McCain enjoyed a slightly larger advantage.

Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory. Four years ago, John Kerry racked up a 23-percentage point margin over George Bush in Lake County, the state’s most northwestern county. Strong turnout in that region could have an impact on the fall election as well.

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McCain is viewed favorably by 61% of Indiana voters, down four points from a month ago.

Obama earns positive reviews from 54%, up two points.

Obama is supported by 92% of Democrats, McCain by 85% of Republicans. The two candidates are even among unaffiliated voters. Premium Members can review full crosstabs and see results by gender, age, ideology, party, income, and other demographics. Learn More.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall. President Bush won the state by a 60% to 39% margin in Election 2004, and no Democrat has carried the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Prior to that, the last Democratic victory came during the Great Depression when Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected in 1936. With release of this poll, Indiana moves from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Rasmussen Reports has released polls on the presidential race this week for Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Virginia, Wisconsin, Utah and Delaware. Additional state poll results will be released throughout the weekend and first thing Monday morning. Next week, RasmussenReports.com will also released state polls Monday at 6:00 p.m. Eastern and Tuesday-Friday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll is released each morning at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Other polling is released at 7:00 a.m., Noon, and 3:00 p.m. Eastern weekdays along with other updates as needed. Premium Members can review full demographic crosstabs for all state polls and get the first look at all Rasmussen Reports polling data. Learn More.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.