Friday, August 22, 2008

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Indiana is one of the most reliably Republican states in the nation, but it also neighbors Barack Obama’s home state of Illinois. Hoosiers still prefer Republican John McCain, but the race could be closer than in recent years, especially if Obama picks one of the state's senators, Evan Bayh, as his running mate.

The first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state shows McCain attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earns 42%. When “leaners” are included, it's McCain by six, 49% to 43%. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.

McCain is viewed favorably by 65% of Indiana voters, Obama by 52%.

Obama earns Very Favorable reviews from 28% while 27% have a Very Unfavorable opinion of him. For McCain, those numbers are 23% Very Favorable and 12% Very Unfavorable.

McCain leads by 12 among men, and the candidates are essentially even among women.

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Rasmussen Markets data shows that Republicans are currently given a % chance of winning Indiana’s 11 Electoral College votes this fall. Preisdent Bush won the state by a 60% to 39% margin in Election 2004, and no Democrat has carried the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Prior to that, the last Democratic victory came during the Great Depression when Franklin D. Roosevelt was re-elected in 1936. At the time this poll was released, Indiana is ranked as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Indiana voters say the economy is the most important issue of Election 2008. Twenty-five percent (25%) name national security issues. Those figures are close to the national average.

Parts of northwestern Indiana are effectively suburbs of Chicago, Obama’s home base. During the Indiana Primary, strong turnout in this region almost enabled Obama to pull off an upset victory. Four years ago, John Kerry racked up a 23-percentage point margin over George Bush in Lake County, the state’s most northwestern county.

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