The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows former Mayor Rudy Giuliani leading Senator Clinton 46% to 44% in an early look at a general election match-up. Clinton has a 47% to 45% edge on another Republican hopeful, Fred Thompson.

These numbers reflect a significant turnaround from recent polls.

Clinton and Giuliani have been in a very competitive match-up for most of the year, but Clinton had gained ground in three bi-weekly consecutive polls. By October 9, the Democratic frontrunner was leading the former mayor by seven percentage points. But, the current results suggest a return to the longer trend-line established for this race.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Clinton and Giuliani have both been within two points of the 45% mark for eleven consecutive polls dating back to May 1, 2007. The candidates have been within two points of each other on seven of those eleven surveys.

Still, while the candidates have hovered consistently around that 45% level of support, a modest trend in Clinton’s favor can easily be detected. During the first eight sets of three-poll averages, Giuliani was “ahead” in seven and tied with Clinton in the eighth. Clinton has held the advantage in the last three updates of the three poll rolling average. She currently leads 47% to 44%.

It’s worth noting that on individual polls with a four point margin of sampling error, Giuliani has been within four points of the 45% mark for thirteen consecutive surveys dating back to March. Clinton has been within four points of the 45% mark on seventeen of eighteen surveys dating back to December.

The bottom line is that the latest trend reversal in the Clinton-Giuliani is interesting but not very surprising.

A similar observation can be made about the reversal found in the latest Clinton-Thompson numbers. Clinton led Thompson by double-digits in early October but that lead has essentially disappeared. Between then and now Thompson participated in two televised GOP debates, after sitting out all previous ones. The first was held the evening of October 9, the second October 22. The current poll was conducted October 22-23. Thompson's performance in the October 9 clash was regarded as passable if not stellar; the second, still uneven but stronger.

But, given the small audiences for the debates, it is perhaps better to evaluate the current results as part of an overall trend.

Since their first Election 2008 match-up, in March, Rasmussen Reports has conducted ten surveys matching the former Tennessee Senator with the former First Lady. The first five found the candidates essentially even, but Clinton increased her lead over Thompson in five consecutive surveys before this latest release.

A look at the three-poll rolling average for this match-up shows Clinton at 45% or 46% in the early match-ups moving up to the 48% to 50% range for the last four sets of results. Thompson started out at 44% or 45% for the first sets of data and has been in the 40% to 43% range more recently.

Currently, in the three poll rolling average, Clinton leads Thompson 49% to 41%.

So, the most recent poll current results showing Thompson the closest he has been to Clinton since July, may signal the start of an upward trend for the GOP hopeful or may be nothing more than statistical noise. The same could be said for Clinton’s spike to a double-digit lead over Thompson last month.

Some of the change in Thompson’s status may reflect the fact that he was little known in the early surveys so the results were more or less entirely based upon perceptions of Hillary Clinton. Now, as Thompson is getting a little better known, the numbers take on a different dynamic.

Those with no opinion of Thompson now number only 13%, down from 22 points two weeks ago. He is viewed favorably by 43%, unfavorably by 44%. Two weeks ago his favorables were 39% and 39%.

A Rasmussen Reports analysis released today shows the polling impact when a little known challenger faces an established candidate like Clinton. In a match-up with Ron Paul. Clinton receives 48% of the vote against Paul. Among people who have never heard of Ron Paul, Clinton still receives 48% of the vote. In other words, it’s all about her.

A separate analysis released today shows that, on average, Clinton attracts 18% of Republican women in general election match-ups. But, she also loses support among Democratic men.

Clinton shows surprising competitiveness in Southern states like North Carolina, Virginia and Tennessee. She is also the dominant frontrunner in the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination and leads all Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Giuliani and Thompson top the national polls in the race for the Republican nomination. Mitt Romney leads in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 51%, unfavorably by 47%. That’s the first time he has moved back above the 50% positive mark in six weeks. Clinton is viewed favorably by 46%, unfavorably by 52%. But, with Clinton, you again need to take the longer view—virtually all year her numbers have hovered around the 49% favorable and 49% unfavorable level. Two weeks ago, she was a few points above that and now she’s a few points below.

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