The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds four candidates essentially tied for the lead in Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary. It’s McCain 19%, Giuliani 18%, Romney 18%, and Huckabee 17%. Fred Thompson is a few points off the pace at 11% while Ron Paul is a distant sixth with support from 5% of Likely Primary Voters.

The race in Florida is very fluid. Just 45% of Likely Primary Voters say they are “certain” to vote for the candidate they currently support. Another 45% say they could change their mind while 10% do not even have a first choice.

Giuliani enjoys the most solid support—63% of his voters are “certain” they will vote for him. Fifty-five percent (55%) of Romney’s voters are that certain along with 42% of McCain fans and 41% of those who support Huckabee. Just 9% of Giuliani voters say there is a “good chance” they could change their mind. That figure ranges from 16% to 18% for the other three top candidates in Florida.

These results come as McCain has opened a modest lead nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll. McCain and Romney are locked in a tight competition in Michigan while McCain and Huckabee are competing for the lead in South Carolina.

Huckabee led the Florida Primary in December while Giuliani held the lead in November. A victory in Florida is crucial for Giuliani who has chosen to stay out of earlier contests in Election 2008. The high risk strategy calls for Giuliani to accept defeats in the early states, win Florida, and translate that momentum into victory on Super Tuesday, February 5.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 75% of Likely Primary Voters. McCain’s favorable are at 68% while Romney is at 65%, Thompson at 61%, Huckabee at 57% and Paul at 27%.

Seventy percent (70%) of Republican Primary Voters in Florida believe Giuliani would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 29% who say he is Very Likely to win.

Sixty-nine percent (69%) say McCain would be at least somewhat likely to win including 32% who say he would be Very Likely to win in November.

Sixty-one percent (61%) say Romney would have a chance. Fifty-one percent (51%) say the same about Huckabee, 42% hold that view of Thompson, and 14% believe Paul would be at least somewhat likely to win the Presidency if nominated.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a % chance to win in Florida while Giuliani is seen as having a % chance of winning. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Prospects for other candidates and other races are featured on the Rasmussen Markets Summary page. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

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