The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain holding a six-percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton and an even larger lead—sixteen percentage points—over Barack Obama. It’s McCain 49% Clinton 43% and McCain 53% Obama 37%. This dynamic is the opposite of what we have found in most other states where Obama typically outperforms Clinton in general election match-ups.

The Florida results for a Clinton-McCain match-up are fairly similar to other battleground states--the race is competitive, Clinton does better among women than men, and McCain leads among unaffiliated voters.

However, the poll contains hints that suggest the controversy over Florida’s convention delegates may be hurting Obama. Most notably, just 55% of Sunshine State Democrats say they would vote for Obama over McCain. Thirty-one percent (31%) say they would vote for McCain. These results are especially striking given that Obama leads McCain among unaffiliated voters in the state.

Florida was stripped of its seats at the Democratic National Convention as a penalty for holding its Primary before February 5. The candidates did not campaign in the state and Hillary Clinton handily won the popular vote. Now, Clinton is calling for the Florida delegates to be seated while Obama disagrees.

The survey also shows that McCain leads Obama by twenty-six points among women. Women are Hillary Clinton’s strongest demographic. McCain leads Obama by twenty-five points among Senior Citizens, another demographic group that is generally supportive of Clinton.

In the end, if Obama is the Democratic nominee, it is likely that most of the Democrats currently unhappy with him will come home and vote for their party rather than John McCain. However, it is always problematic for a candidate to begin a campaign without the solid support of voters from within his own party.

Obama currently outperforms Clinton in Oregon, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Nevada. These same dynamics are also found in national polling. In Missouri, both Clinton and Obama are essentially even with McCain.

Rasmussen Markets data just prior to the release of this poll showed that Republicans were a very slight favorite to carry Florida in the general election (current prices: Republican % Democrat %). Among Democrats, the Markets give Obama a % chance to win the nomination while expectations for a Clinton victory are at %.

Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.