Monday, June 30, 2008

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The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by seven percentage points, 48% to 41%. One week earlier, it was McCain by eight. A month ago, the Republican had a ten-point lead. This is the sixth straight Rasmussen Reports telephone survey to show McCain leading Obama in the Sunshine State. (See video)

McCain is now viewed favorably by 57% of Florida voters, a figure that has not changed since the previous survey. Obama is viewed favorably by 44%, reflecting a seven point decline in eight days. Even more dramatic is the fact that 40% of Florida voters have a Very Unfavorable opinion of Obama in the June 26 survey. That’s up from 29% eight days earlier before the debate over offshore drilling escalated.

Eighteen percent (18%) of Florida voters now have a Very Unfavorable opinion of McCain, down from 21% in the previous survey.

McCain leads by seventeen points among men but trails by two among women. Obama has a huge lead among voters under 30 while McCain leads among those 30 and older. McCain is supported by 85% of Republicans while Obama earns the vote from 71% of Democrats. Unaffiliated voters are fairly evenly divided.

Nearly two weeks ago, McCain startled the political world by calling for offshore oil drilling, a position that was assumed to be unpopular in the key state of Florida. Since that time, both McCain and Obama have actively addressed the issue. The Democrat has made it clear that he opposes offshore drilling and doesn’t believe it will bring down the price of gas and oil.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Florida voters favor offshore drilling while 32% are opposed. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans favor offshore drilling and unaffiliated voters favor it by a 54% to 34% margin. Democrats are more evenly divided—38% favor drilling while 50% are opposed. Nationally, support for drilling is also at 59%. Over the past couple of weeks, Obama has persuaded some Democrats to oppose the concept but had no measurable impact on Republicans and unaffiliated voters.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Florida voters say it’s likely that offshore drilling will reduce the price of gas and oil while 39% disagree.

Rasmussen Markets shows that McCain is currently given a % chance of winning Florida this fall. As this poll is released, Florida is rated “Leans Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

See survey questons and toplines. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.