On the Saturday before the Texas and Ohio Primaries, data from the Rasmussen Markets shows that Barack Obama is given an 87% chance of winning the Democratic Presidential Nomination. His sole remaining challenger, Hillary Clinton, is given less than a 13% chance of emerging victorious from this competition (current prices: Obama % Clinton %).

A review of data over the past month shows that expectations for Obama have been growing steadily ever since the run-up to the Super Tuesday Primaries on February 5.

Just prior to Super Tuesday, the market data showed Obama to be a very slight underdog with expectations in the low-to-mid 40% range. Following Super Tuesday, Obama became a slight favorite, with the markets setting his prospects in the mid-fifty percent range. A string of victories that following weekend and in the Potomac Primaries a week after Super Tuesday pushed expectations for Obama over the 70% range.

Obama’s numbers have continued creeping upwards ever since—he passed the 80% level following a decisive victory in Wisconsin. That is the momentum Clinton is trying to reverse with her new campaign commercial raising the national security issue in a dramatic manner.

Looking ahead to the March 4 primaries, Obama leads in Vermont and holds a very narrow advantage in Texas. Clinton leads in Rhode Island and is clinging to a very narrow lead in Ohio. If Clinton is able to pull off victories in three of the four states, it is likely to reduce expectations that Obama will emerge as the nominee. Exactly how much it will impact the numbers will probably depend upon the size of the victories. On the other hand, since the Clinton campaign earlier identified Ohio and Texas as their firewall states, a loss in either is likely to further increase expectations for Obama.

Currently, Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama a % chance of winning in Texas and a % chance of winning in Ohio.