The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Election 2008 shows Democratic U.S. Senator Barack Obama maintaining a five-point edge over former Mayor Rudy Giuliani, leading 46% to 41%. The same survey shows Senator Obama leading former Senator Fred Thompson 47% to 41%.

This is the third consecutive survey with Obama chalking up five-point leads over Giuliani, marking a significant shift in the match-up. When the campaign season began, in late 2006, Giuliani held a double digit lead over Obama. While the match-up quickly tightened, Giuliani retained the edge in eight consecutive surveys through June of this year. In July Obama finally gained the upper hand, but the two candidates were just a point or two apart in three consecutive surveys conducted in August and early September (see history).

But, in mid-September, early-October, and the current survey, Obama has had the upper hand over Giuliani.

Giuliani has also lost ground to Senator Hillary Clinton in recent surveys(by seven percentage points) and he trails former Senator John Edwards. The perception that he is the most electable Republican is not as strong as it was earlier in the fall.

Clinton is still seen as the most electable Democrat and Democrats are generally more confident than Republicans about Election 2008.

Thompson has trailed Obama in every Rasmussen Reports poll of this match-up. In six of the last seven polls, dating back to late July, Thompson has trailed Obama by 4-7 percentage points. The one exception was the most recent before this one. The October 2 survey found Obama with an 11 point lead over Thompson in what may now be viewed as an outlier. Thompson also trailed Obama by double digits in March and April, when the prospect of his candidacy was first being floated.

Obama currently leads each top GOP candidate by at least a few points. But he trails Clinton by a wide margin in the Democratic nomination race. Clinton also leads in Iowa and New Hampshire, the first places that actual voters will get a chance to formally participate in Election 2008.

Democratic voters are starting to see Obama as more politically liberal than Clinton. That’s one of three trends currently defining the Democratic competition.

Senator Obama is now viewed favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 42%. Mayor Giuliani is viewed favorably by 48%, unfavorably by 46%—making this the fifth survey in a row in which his favorables have been below 50%. Senator Thompson, still unfamiliar to about a fifth of voters, is viewed favorably by 39%, unfavorably by 41%.

In the Republican nomination race, both Giuliani and Thompson gained ground in the wake of the first GOP debate to include Thompson. But that post-debate bounce now appears to be fading.

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