One month from today and Iowa caucus participants will answer a lot of questions about the race for the Democratic Presidential Nomination.

At the moment, all that can be said with certainty is that the race is getting closer. Nationally, support for frontrunner Hillary Clinton fell five points last week to 37%. That’s her lowest level of support from Likely Democratic Primary voters nationwide since June (see full history of weekly results from January 18 through this week). That figure also reflects a decline of nine points from her peak in late October.

Barack Obama moved upwards a bit to 25%, a level of support he’s reached in just two of the previous fourteen weeks.

John Edwards remains where he has been almost all year in the mid-teens.

Polling in Iowa shows a race that is far too close to call between Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. Clinton still leads in New Hampshire, but her advantage is down to single digits.

When it comes to electability, the competition between Clinton and Obama is getting closer as well. Seventy-three percent (73%) of Democrats now believe Clinton is at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. Sixty-six percent (66%) say the same about Obama. Those figures reflect an eight-point decline in confidence for Clinton and a one-point gain for Obama over the past month. Fifty-eight percent (58%) believe Edwards would have a chance in November 2008, down two points from the previous poll.

As noted last week, the campaign is further complicated by the timing of the Iowa caucuses. While most Americans are enjoying a quiet week between Christmas and New Year’s, Iowa voters will have a hard time avoiding an army of politicians and their advisors. For the candidates, this will present an enormous challenge. How do you campaign tactfully during the season while still letting voters know all the reasons to vote against everybody else. However, it’s a challenge that can’t be ignored. On January 3, the Iowa caucuses launch 33 days of primaries and caucuses that will likely determine the nominees of the two major political parties. And, of course, what happens in those 33 days may be impacted by what happens first in Iowa.

Rasmussen Reports conducts national telephone surveys on the Presidential race every night and releases updated data from our Presidential Tracking Poll by noon each day.

For the seven days ending December 2, Hillary Clinton earns 37% of the vote. Barack Obama is second at 25% followed by John Edwards at 14%. Bill Richardson is at 5%, Joe Biden attracts 3%, Dennis Kucinich 2% and Chris Dodd 1%. Mike Gravel rounds down to 0% support while 13% of Likely Democratic Primary Voters are undecided (review history of weekly results).

The seven day results typically include interviews with more than 1,000 Likely Democratic Primary Voters. This includes both Democrats and those independents likely to vote in a Democratic Primary. In some state primaries, independent voters are allowed to participate in party primaries while in others they are excluded. The margin of sampling error for the weekly update is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Updates prior to July 16 were based upon four days of polling conducted the Monday through Thursday preceding release.

Rasmussen Reports continuously updates general election match-ups and other measures for all Republican and Democratic Presidential candidates.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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