Tuesday, October 07, 2008

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John McCain’s lead has been cut by over half in Alaska, but he still leads Barack Obama by 15 points, 55% to 40%, in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

A month ago, in the first poll since McCain named Alaska’s highly popular governor, Sarah Palin, as his running mate, the Republican led Obama 64% to 33%. In the two months prior to that, he was ahead by just five.

Nationally, Obama has opened a steady lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and Electoral College projections.

In the past month, the federal trial of Ted Stevens, Alaska’s longtime senior Republican senator, began in Washington. He has been indicted by federal authorities for allegedly hiding more than $250,000 in illegal gifts from an oil company. Stevens, who has pleaded innocent, is locked in a tight race for reelection.

McCain has the support of 90% of Alaska Republicans while Obama is backed by 81% of Democrats and nine percent (9%) of GOP voters. The Democrat has a four-point edge among unaffiliated voters, which represents a significant turnaround from a month ago when McCain led among this group by 18 points.

McCain leads among male voters by 22 points and, unlike in many states, also among women voters. In Alaska, he leads among women by nine points (see full demographic crosstabs).

Sixty-four percent (64%) of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of McCain, while 36% regard him unfavorably. Obama is viewed favorably by 48% and unfavorably by 51%. This is a slight worsening of the numbers for McCain and an improvement for Obama.

Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 is the only Democratic presidential candidate who has ever won in Alaska since it became a state in 1959.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives Republicans an % chance of winning Alaska’s three Electoral College votes in November. With the release of these numbers, Alaska shifts from “Likely Republican” to “Safely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right corner of this article.

Sixty-three percent (63%) of Alaska voters have a favorable opinion of Palin, including 46% who say their view of her is Very Favorable. Thirty-seven percent (37%) regard her unfavorably.

Democratic vice presidential nominee Joseph Biden is seen favorably by 51%, including 25% Very Favorable, and unfavorably by 46%.

Forty-one percent (41%) rank economic issues as the most important in this election, while 22% say national security is most important. Alaska voters trust McCain more than Obama in both areas by double-digit margins.

Just over half (52%) rate the economy now as poor, and 82% say it’s getting worse. Seventy percent (70%) of voters in the state describe themselves as investors.

Fifty-nine percent (59%) of Alaska voters say creating economic growth is more important than narrowing the gap between rich and poor, but 33% feel the latter is more important. Seventy-six percent (76%) say creasing growth is more important to McCain, while 64% believe reducing the income gap is more important to Obama.

New polling was released Monday night with statewide results from Colorado, Florida, Missouri, Ohio, and Virginia. See an overview of all five state polls and the latest Electoral College projections. A total of 270 Electoral Votes are needed to win the White House (see 50-State Summary).

Recent statewide Presidential polls have been released for Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Hawaii, Kentucky, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia and Washington. Demographic crosstabs for all state polling are available for Premium Members. Learn More.

See results from recent polling on Senate races.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Alaska voters say President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, but 46% rate his job performance as poor.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs are available to Premium Members only.