Monday, July 21, 2008

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John McCain still has a very modest lead over Barack Obama in Alaska, but the traditionally Republican state still remains surprisingly competitive. A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey has found that McCain now leads Obama 45% to 40%. Last month, the Republican candidate was ahead 45%to 41%.

When leaners are factored in, McCain still maintains just a 5-point lead 49% to44%, according to the survey taken last Thursday night.

This is the fourth month in a row where McCain’s lead has been in single digits. His biggest lead was 9%, recorded in April and May. Since then the race has tightened.

McCain, however, is now viewed favorably by 63% of Alaska voters, up six percent from June. Obama has held steady at 53% for two months in a row. The Democrat also continues to have high unfavorables -- at 46%, compared to 35% for McCain.

Obama initially experienced a modest bounce over McCain in the polls nationwide after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race. But in the last 10 days the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll shows the contest has tightened up considerably.

Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 is the only Democratic presidential candidate who has ever won in Alaska. George W. Bush carried the state by 25 points in 2004 and 31 points four years earlier.

Rasmussen Markets currently gives Republicans an % chance of winning Alaska’s three Electoral College votes in November. At the time the poll was released, Alaska was rated as “Likely Republican” in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

Most disturbing for Republicans, however, is the new survey’s findings that Democrat Mark Begich now has a nine-point lead over longtime GOP incumbent Senator Ted Stevens.

In Alaska, both presidential contenders are firming up support in their own parties, with each enjoying 82% support, up from the 70s last month. Obama’s support among unaffiliated voters continues to hold steady at 47% for the third month in a row, while McCain’s percentage of unaffiliateds has now dropped to 30%, from 33% in June and 41% the month before that. Still,14% of unaffiliated voters remain undecided, and 10% favor an unspecified third-party candidate.

A plurality of Alaska voters (40%) rate economic issues as their number one concern this election cycle, followed by 24% who rank national security as most important. During the 2004 campaign, national security was ranked highest by most voters.

Over half of voters in Alaska (52%) believe the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, five points higher than the national average on this question. But Alaskans also agree with Obama that Afghanistan is a greater national security risk to America and should be the central front in the war on terror. These findings are similar to the national average.

Fifty-three percent (53%) say the United States does not have the world’s best economy, but 47% believe the media makes the economy seem worse than it really is (see national survey results)

Again, slightly over half (52%) feel that lowering gas and oil prices is more important than protecting the economy, although 38% disagree. Sixty-six percent (66%) support lifting the ban on offshore oil drilling.
President Bush’s job approval rating tends to track better in Alaska than much of the rest of the country, but he lost some ground over the past month. Only 37% say the President is doing a good or an excellent job, compared to 41% last month. Forty-six percent (46%) say his performance is poor versus 44% in June.

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