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Alabama Democratic Presidential Primary
Alabama: Clinton 46% Obama 41%
Saturday, February 02, 2008
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Hillary Clinton’s lead over Barack Obama in Alabama has fallen ten points in a week. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey, conducted Thursday night, found Clinton attracting 46% of the vote while Obama earned 41%. Seven percent (7%) said they would vote for some other candidate while 6% are not sure. Eight days earlier, Clinton enjoyed a 43% to 28% lead. In between, of course, was Obama’s huge victory in South Carolina including high-profile endorsements from the daughter and brother of martyred President John F. Kennedy. Those events changed the tone of the race for the Democratic nomination. Obama has gained ground nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll and in several states including California and Massachusetts (see summary of Super Tuesday polls). Still, while Clinton has lost ground, she started from a very solid position. So, both nationally and in Alabama, it remains to be seen whether Obama’s surge will be enough to actually take the lead or if he will fall just a little bit short. In Alabama, Clinton leads by eight among women and by two percentage points among men. While Obama leads by a two-to-one margin among African-American voters in the state, Clinton still attracts 30% of this important segment of the electorate. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Clinton’s voters say they are “certain” they will vote for her. Five percent (5%) of her supporters say there’s a good chance they could change their mind while another 20% say they might change their mind. For Obama, 82% are “certain” and just 2% say there’s a good chance they could change their mind. Another 16% of Obama’s voters say they might change their mind. Clinton is viewed favorably by 82% of the state’s Likely Primary Voters, Obama by 70%. Obama is viewed favorably by 89% of African-American voters but just 51% of White Voters. Eighty-four percent (84%) say that Clinton would be at least somewhat likely to win the White House if nominated. That figure includes 52% who believe she would be Very Likely to win. Seventy-two percent (72%) say Obama would be at least somewhat likely to win, including 41% who believe he would be Very Likely to win. A Rasmussen Reports analysis earlier in the week noted that the numbers still favored Clinton, but sometimes the numbers don’t matter. Since that time, Obama has gained momentum and it is now unlikely that the Democratic nominee will be selected on February 5. Rasmussen Markets data gives Clinton a % chance of winning the Democratic nomination and Obama a % chance. Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market. A summary of Rasmussen Markets data for Super Tuesday contests is available for both Republicans and Democrats. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 576 Likely Democratic Primary Voters
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