On the night before America votes, 59% of likely U.S. voters expect Barack Obama to be elected president.

Eighteen percent (18%) expect Obama to beat John McCain by a landslide, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken Monday night. Forty-one percent (41%) say a modest Obama victory is most likely.

Over one-fifth of voters (22%) say the race is too close to call.

The fewest number of voters expect McCain to win. Seventeen percent (17%) say a modest McCain victory is most likely, while just two percent (2%) expect the Republican to win by a landslide.

In monthly polling going back to June, voters have consistently projected an Obama win over McCain except for early September when the race was a draw, but McCain’s rebound was blunted by the growing bad news from Wall Street. By early October, 14% predicted a landslide for the Democrat, 41% a modest victory, compared to 15% who expected McCain to win.

The final Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Election 2008 shows Barack Obama with 52% of the vote while John McCain is six points back at 46%. One percent (1%) of voters say they’ll select a third-party option while 1% remain undecided.

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Eighty-five percent (85%) of Democrats expect Obama to win, 32% of whom expect a landslide. Just 23% of Republicans think the Democrat will win, and only five percent (5%) anticipate a landslide. Forty-three percent (43%) of GOP voters think a McCain victory is most likely, five percent (5%) by a landslide.

Republican uncertainty is clear, however, because 34% of the party’s voters say the race is too close to call compared to just 11% of Democrats.

Sixty-four percent (64%) of unaffiliated voters think an Obama victory is at hand, 14% by a landslide, versus 12% who believe McCain will come out on top. Twenty-three percent (23%) say it’s too close to predict.

Sixty percent (60%) of those who have already voted expect Obama to win, while just 18% say McCain will be the victor. Nationwide, Rasmussen Reports polling suggests as many as 37% of voters may have cast their ballots before today.

Given the high level of new voter registration this year, the majority registered as Democrats, it’s significant that 87% of first-time voters believe Obama will win, as do 59% of those who say they are certain to vote.

Eighty-three percent (83%) of African-American voters expect a victory by Obama, the first black presidential candidate of a major U.S. political party. Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites agree.

Nearly half of U.S. voters (49%) say Obama, if elected, will generally offer liberal big government solutions to the country’s problems. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree, and 18% are undecided. These numbers have remained much the same since Obama became the undisputed Democratic candidate in early June.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of male voters expect Obama to champion liberal programs versus 43% of women. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of likely McCain voters agree, while 51% of those who plan to vote for Obama do not believe that is the route he will take.

Voters are more evenly divided over whether a President McCain’s policies would be pretty much the same as those of President Bush. Forty-seven percent (47%) say they would be, but 42% disagree. Clearly, McCain was able to put some, but perhaps not enough, space between himself and the unpopular president, looking at polling going back to June.

Men are closely divided, while women by 11 points believe McCain’s policies would be largely the same as Bush’s. Forty-one percent (41%) of whites and 71% of blacks agree.

Eighty-two percent (82%) of likely Obama voters expect more of the same, as do 12% of those who plan to vote for McCain. But 77% of likely McCain voters say their candidate’s policies will not be pretty much the same as Bush’s, and 11% of Obama’s voters agree.

After months of McCain versus Obama, what do voters think of it all? Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the campaign was exciting, 12% say it was boring, and 50% found it somewhere in between.

Women, who nationally have trended toward Obama all year, found the election more exciting than men by seven points. Given the historic nature of Obama’s candidacy, it’s not surprising that 71% of African-American voters rate the campaign as exciting, compared to 32% of whites. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of first-time voters agree.

Asked how much time they spent yesterday talking with family and friends about politics and the election, 39% said more than an hour. Another 20% spent a half-hour to an hour on the topics. Just five percent (5%) said they didn’t discuss politics and the election at all. Looking at polls going back to June, it’s clear that the closer the election, the more time voters spent discussing politics.

Final Fox News/Rasmussen polling in six key battleground states – Colorado, Florida, Missouri, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia – was released yesterday. McCain has one-point leads in North Carolina and Florida but lags behind in Colorado and Virginia. The race is tied in Missouri and Ohio. All six states went Republican in the 2004 election, and without all six in his column, McCain will have great difficulty winning the White House.

In the Electoral College projections, Rasmussen Reports now shows Obama leading 260 to 160. When states that are leaning in one way or the other are included, Obama leads 313 to 160. A total of 270 Electoral College votes are needed to win the White House (Predict how many Electoral College votes Obama will win this year).

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