49% Say Obama May Be Next President

Monday, May 21, 2007

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Americans say it’s Somewhat or Very Likely that Illinois Senator Barack Obama (D) will be elected President of the United States in 2008. A Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey found that 46% say the same about New York Senator Hillary Clinton (D). Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) is seen as a Somewhat or Very Likely occupant of the White House by 42%. Arizona Senator John McCain (R) is seen as a potential victor by 41%.

The numbers suggest that American voters have a healthy perspective on Election 2008. Eighteen months before Election Day, no one individual is seen as an overwhelming favorite. In fact, when we look at who voters consider Very Likely to be our next President, only one politician reaches double digits—Hillary Clinton at 17%. Obama is seen as Very Likely by 9%. Giuliani and McCain are each seen as Very Likely to win by 7%.

Four percent (4%) say it is Very Likely a Third Party candidate will win in 2008. Another 10% say it is Somewhat Likely.

In January, a different question found that McCain was seen as the most likely person to be elected President in 2008. Since then, McCain’s position has slipped in both Republican Primary polls and general election match-ups.

Clinton and Obama are the current leaders in the battle for the Democratic Presidential nomination. Giuliani and McCain lead the pack among those seeking the Republican nomination.

Rasmussen Reports regularly tracks public attitudes towards Congress, the War on Terror, and other topics. Rasmussen Reports also continuously updates favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Democratic and Republican Presidential candidates along with ratings for Members of Congress, Other Political Figures, and Journalists.

Rasmussen Reports also conducts ongoing surveys measuring the attitudes of Americans on the news of the day including gun control, partial-birth abortion, and Iraq. The latest updates can be found on the Rasmussen Reports home page.

Rasmussen Reports releases updated polling data on the Democrat Nomination Process every Monday and on the Republican contest every Tuesday. Results for the Generic Congressional Ballot are updated monthly.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

This national telephone survey of 800 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports May 2-3, 2007. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Survey of 800 Likely Voters
May 2-3, 2007

How likely is it that Barack Obama will be elected President?
Very Likely	9%
Somewhat Likely	40%
Not Very Likely	29%
Not at All Likely	16%

How likely is it that Hillary Clinton will be elected President?
Very Likely	17%
Somewhat Likely	29%
Not Very Likely	33%
Not at All Likely	17%

How likely is it that John McCain will be elected President?
Very Likely	7%
Somewhat Likely	34%
Not Very Likely	38%
Not at All Likely	16%

How likely is it that Rudy Giuliani will be elected President?
Very Likely	7%
Somewhat Likely	35%
Not Very Likely	39%
Not at All Likely	13%

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