Thursday, May 08, 2008

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Missouri Attorney General Jay Nixon is gaining ground in his bid to be the next Governor of the Show-Me State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey found that Nixon topped the 50% level of support for the first time and now leads two potential Republican challengers by identical 51% to 35% margins.

A month ago, Nixon led State Treasurer Sarah Steelman by seven points and Congressman Kenny Hulshof by eleven. Nixon’s lead over Steelman had narrowed somewhat last month, from eleven points two months ago to seven points.

Individual polls can sometimes overstate volatility in a race, especially when the results carry a four-and-a-half percentage point margin of sampling error. One way of addressing this is to look at a rolling-average of three consecutive polls. Using this approach, Nixon leads Steelman 48% to 36%. With a three-poll average, Nixon leads Hulshof 48% to 35%.

Nixon leads both Republican hopefuls by more than twenty points among women and enjoys smaller leads among men.

Nixon is viewed favorably by 59% and unfavorably by 31%. Hulshof earns positive reviews from 41% and negative feedback from 39%. Steelman’s numbers are 41% favorable and 37% unfavorable.

Republican Governor Matt Blunt, who recently decided against seeking re-election, earns good or excellent ratings from 38% of Missouri voters. That’s down four points from a month ago. Thirty-three percent (33%) say he is doing a poor job.

Rasmussen Markets data now shows that Nixon is favored to win the Missouri Governor’s race. Current expectations for a Nixon victory are at %. These expectations are updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

While the Governor’s race is looking good for the Democrats, John McCain is on top in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College Votes.

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