Hawaii’s Senate seat will be decided on September 23—Primary Day—rather than November 8. That’s when Democrats Daniel Akaka, the incumbent senator seeking his fourth full term, and U.S. Rep. Ed Case will square off for their party’s nomination in November. And with a little more than a month to go in the primary battle, the contest is either candidate’s to win.

According to the most recent Rasmussen Reports election poll, Sen. Akaka leads Case 47% to 45% (see crosstabs). That’s a surprisingly narrow margin for the incumbent war veteran who has represented the Aloha State in the Senate since 1990.

Akaka and Case are both viewed Very Favorably by 23% of the states’ voters. Case slightly edges out Akaka on overall favorable ratings, however,

Regardless of which candidate wins on September 23, it appears that the seat will remain safely in the Democrats’ hands. Assuming Akaka is the party’s candidate, 58% of voters surveyed prefer him to Republican Jerry Coffee (30%.) Should Case succeed in unseating Akaka, 63% say they’ll vote for him over Coffee (21%.)

When asked for their opinion of Coffee, 10% of voters say they have a Very Favorable opinion, 15% a Very Unfavorable one, and 30% still aren’t sure what they think of him.

It should be noted that Coffee’s campaign has been suspended at least temporarily due to health reasons. The candidate underwent heart surgery in Texas on August 8 and it remains to be seen if he’ll resume his campaign efforts following his recovery. Even if he chooses to sit out the remainder of the race, his name will still appear on September’s ballot along with the five other candidates vying for the GOP nomination.

Voters in most states rate the economy as the most important issue for Election 2006. However, in Hawaii, the war in Iraq (27%) is the top concern. The economy is close behind, rated most important by 23%.

Interestingly, for a state that was the site of several missionary expeditions and settlements beginning in the early 1800’s, only 28% of respondents believe the Bible is literally true; 57% do not. On the issue of same sex marriage, a slim majority—51%—says marriage is the union of a man and a woman only and 45% say it’s the joining of any two people.

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.