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Arizona: Incumbents Napolitano, Kyl Maintain Leads
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Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano continues her stroll to reelection, now leading Republican Len Munsil 58% to 37% (see crosstabs).

Munsil has struggled to gain inroads by highlighting crime, illegal immigration, taxes and other issues, but with little luck. Recently he accused the Napolitano campaign of benefiting from illegally financed third-party campaigning. But these charges aren't turning the tide either.

The race has tightened slightly since early in the year. Munsil has yet to reach 40%, however.

In a tough year for Republicans, the Governor is a triple threat: she's a Democrat, an incumbent, and widely popular. Even 51% of Republicans view her favorably, and 69% of all voters do. Forty-four percent (44%) view her "very favorably." Munsil is viewed favorably by 46%, with 17% still "not sure" what to think of him.

Republican Senator Jon Kyl has had a tougher race, but is also leading in his reelection bid. After having led by twenty points and more, Kyl now leads Democrat challenger Jim Pederson by just nine, 51% to 42% (see crosstabs). That's a couple points down from his lead in September.

Pederson, a developer, has spent millions of his own wealth on the campaign.

Both Senate candidates attract about four fifths of their base voters. Kyl leads 49% to 39% among unaffiliated voters. Among moderates, though, Pederson leads 54% to 40%.

Overall, Kyl is viewed favorably by 56%, Pederson by 45%. The developer is viewed "very unfavorably" by 30%, Kyl by only 19%.

One major campaign issue has been immigration. Kyl takes the tougher stance, advocating mass deportation, while Pederson favors a guest-worker program for at least some illegal aliens. Both support a border fence. Pederson has also focused on the stalled war in Iraq.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
October 15, 2006

Election 2006: Arizona Governor

Janet Napolitano (D)

58%

Len Munsil (R)

37%

Election 2006: Arizona Senate

Jon Kyl (R)

51%

Jim Pederson (D)

42%

Election 2006: Arizona Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Kyl

Pederson

Aug-Sep-Oct

51%

39%

Jul-Aug-Sep

52%

36%

May-Jul-Aug

52%

35%

Apr-May-Jul

53%

34%

Mar-Apr-May

54%

33%

Jan-Mar-Apr

54%

33%

Election 2006: Arizona Senate

Date

Kyl

Pederson

Oct 15

51%

42%

Sep 18

50%

39%

Aug 24

52%

35%

Jul 18

53%

34%

May 24

52%

35%

Apr 30

53%

32%

Mar 30

56%

33%

Jan 18

53%

34%

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