Over the past couple of weeks, many people have asked why we're not including Ralph Nader by name in our tracking poll (we do include "some other candidate").

The inquiries have become more intense since a CBS/NY Times poll found that Nader's presence might help President Bush. In that survey, Bush led Kerry by three points in a head-to-head match-up. His lead in the poll grew to eight points if Nader was included.

A similar thing happened in Pennsylvania. Our latest poll in that state found a dead heat--Kerry 45% Bush 44%. Another poll, by Quinnipiac University, found exactly the same result. But when Nader was added to the mix, Quinnipiac found Bush ahead by four points.

These polls have caused some to conclude that Nader will once again play the role of spoiler for the Democratic contender.

We respectfully disagree.

There are two reasons we do not include Nader by name in our polling at this time.

First, it is not at all clear how many state ballots will include Nader this fall. If he is not on the ballot, he is not likely to be much of a factor.

Second, if the national election stays close, Ralph Nader will not attract the 5% to 7% level of support found in several recent polls. Given the experience of four years ago, many potential Nader supporters will ultimately decide to cast their vote for John Kerry.

Our current polling finds that about 4% of voters say that they will vote for someone other than Bush or Kerry. When we ask them a follow-up question, less than half say they will stick with that third party choice.

Therefore, we have concluded that the most accurate measure of the Bush-Kerry race is to leave Nader's name out of the mix.

Having said that, Rasmussen Reports will continue to monitor the situation and consider adding Nader if he is able to obtain ballot access in at least 35-40 states. We will do the same for Libertarian candidates and others who are on that many state ballots.

Also, we want to be clear that our comments about limited support for Nader apply only in the context of a close election. If, in late October, it appears that Bush is headed for victory by a fairly safe margin, some Democrats might support Nader with a protest vote.

Finally, we want to acknowledge that Nader may have a significant impact on the race even if he does not attract many votes. The mere presence of a challenge from the left will complicate the efforts of Senator Kerry to move toward more centrist positions.