Many pundits (and 26% of voters) think that Election 2004 will be just like Election 2000—too close to call. Others wonder if it’s more like Clinton’s 1996 re-election effort or the 1988 campaign (the first President Bush vs. a different Massachusetts liberal Democrat).

To broaden the discussion, consider another by-gone campaign—Election 1896. In that year, Republican candidate William McKinley defeated Democrat William Jennings Bryan 51% to 47%. In the Electoral College, it was McKinley 271 to Bryan’s 176. Many people believe that election inspired the Wizard of Oz.

Why is this relevant today? For one thing, White House strategist Karl Rove has reportedly studied it closely. Beyond that, consider the similarities:

• Today, in three consecutive Presidential elections, no candidate has won a majority of the popular vote. The last time that happened was heading into the 1896 campaign.
• Prior to 1896, Republicans had won seven of the last nine Presidential Elections. Today, they have won six-of-the-last nine.
• In the sixty years leading up to both 1896 and 2004, Democrats had won a majority of the popular vote for President just twice.
• In both cases, Republicans had a good run beating up the Democrats for its position on the last big political war (Vietnam today, Civil War then).
• But, the Democratic Party then and now held a strong belief that it was right and its cause was noble. Then, and now, the majority opposed the Democratic position, but a substantial minority believed in it passionately (that's why Kerry always comes back to Vietnam and why the Solid South used to benefit Democrats).
• On economic issues, Democrats then and now tried to adopt a populist tone fighting for those hurt by economic change (farming then, manufacturing now).
• Republicans then and now promote economic growth, but struggle with some of growth's rougher edges.
• Neither party today has fully adapted to a changed and changing world. Consider the labor market today. Rather than seeking lifetime employment, less than half of all workers plan to stay with their employer for five years (and they overwhelmingly believe it will be their choice when they leave).
• Self-employment free agency is ever more popular--there are now more self-employed workers and small business owners than union members. Neither party's rhetoric notices this.
• The changing workforce played a major role in 1896 as well. At that time, a transition was just beginning that transformed the nation from farming to manufacturing, from rural to urban.
• Change then and now was driven by new communications technologies and new ways of connecting with friends, relatives, and neighbors.
• Today, of course, the Internet is changing things more quickly than we can measure. One hundred and eight years ago, however, the introduction of telephones and telegraphs had at least a big an impact on the way that Americans communicated with each other and received information.

Of course, while there are many similarities, there are also important differences between 1896 and today. Perhaps the biggest difference is the relationship between political parties and their candidates. Today, political parties are defined by their candidates. In McKinley’s time, it was the other way around.

Another difference is that the Democrats held the White House in the 1896 election (but, like today, they had won 2 of the previous three elections following a period where Republicans dominated the Presidential Elections).

Ultimately, of course, each election takes on a life of its own. However, Republicans hope, and Democrats fear, that the model of 1896 is carried out a step further. Starting in 1896, Republicans controlled the White House for 28 or the next 36 years.

Historical comparisons, of course, do not predict the outcome of future elections. To follow Election 2004, check the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll every single day by noon Eastern.