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Florida: Kerry 47% Bush 46%
Wednesday, April 14, 2004
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Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry attracting 47% of the vote in the Sunshine State and President George W. Bush earning 46%. The survey was completed just before President Bush's nationally televised Press Conference on Iraq. A month ago, Kerry led Bush by 3 percentage points, 48% to 45%. Bush is viewed favorably by 52% of Florida voters. For Kerry, that number is 51%. As is the case in other states, opinions about the President are much firmer than for Senator Kerry. For example, 40% of Florida voters have a very favorable opinion of Bush and 12% have a somewhat favorable opinion. On the other hand, just 21% have a very favorable opinion of Kerry and 30% say somewhat favorable. Favorability ratings for other Florida political figures are summarized separately. Related survey data shows that Florida voters are more optimistic than the national average when it comes to the economy, but more pessimistic when it comes to the War on Terror. Bush leads Kerry among men by a 50% to 43% margin. Kerry leads among women, 51% to 42%. Among Investors, Bush leads 49% to 44%. Kerry has a large lead among those who do not invest, 52% to 41%. Forty-nine percent (49%) of Florida voters approve of the way Bush has performed his role as President. That's little changed from 50% a month ago. When it comes to managing the economy, 47% of Florida voters prefer Bush and 44% Kerry. Additional data on Florida perceptions of the economy will be released later. Forty-six percent (46%) of Florida voters say their own taxes will go up if Kerry is elected while 33% believe their taxes will stay about the same. If Bush is elected, 54% expect their taxes to remain about the same and just 23% expect to personally experience a tax hike. During Election 2000, Rasmussen conducted Florida surveys seven times between Labor Day and Election Day, the candidates were tied or within two points of each other six out of seven times. The seventh survey, conducted immediately after the first Bush-Gore debate, showed Bush with a 4-point lead. Many of the early Election 2004 state polls suggest that Election 2004 is starting where Election 2000 left off. This includes polls in Washington, Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania. In Iowa, a state that Bush narrowly lost four years ago, he is trailing by a somewhat larger margin so far this year. In Ohio, a state that Bush won four years ago, the President is currently trailing. Bush is leading in Missouri by seven points. He won that state by four points the last time. On a national basis this time around, the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Election Tracking Poll has found Bush and Kerry virtually even for weeks. In January, Rasmussen Reports survey found the President leading a generic Democrat in Florida by two points. Bush also had a substantial lead over then-front-runner Howard Dean. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
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