Election 2004: Month-by-Month

Monday, November 01, 2004

Data from 269 days of Rasmussen Reports Tracking Polls provides a reminder of just how close the campaign has been all year... and for how long it has been so painfully close.

During George W. Bush's worst month of Election 2004 (May), he averaged 45.5% of the vote in the Rasmussen Reports Presidential Tracking Poll. During his best month (October), he averaged less than three points more than that--48.8%.
For John Kerry, the difference between his worst month and his best month was even smaller--from a low of 45.1% in May to 47.2% in July.
For Senator Kerry, his best day in every month was at 47%-49% of the vote. With one exception, the same is true for President Bush. (These are the figures listed under "high" for each candidate in the table below).
The Senator's worst day each month was between 43% and 45%. For the President, the range is a bit wider--from 42% to 47%. (These are the figures listed under "high" for each candidate in the table below).
Both candidates were ahead at some point in every single month except September. During that month, following the GOP convention, Kerry's best day was a tie.

This table as of November 1, 2004

2004	Bush vs. Kerry month-by-month
RR	President Bush			Senator Kerry			Spread
RR	High	Low	Average	High	Low	Average	High Bush	High Kerry	Average
Oct	49.6	46.4	48.3	47.8	45.3	46.5	B + 4.0	K + 2.0	B + 1.8
Sep	49.4	47.1	48.0	46.8	44.7	45.4	B + 4.6	Even	B + 2.6
Aug	48	45	46.4	49	45	45.8	B + 1	K + 4	B + 0.6
Jul	47	44	45.6	48	45	47.2	B + 2	K + 4	K + 1.6
Jun	47	44	45.9	47	44	45.4	B + 3	K + 3	B + 0.5
May	46	43	45.5	47	43	45.1	B + 3	K + 4	B + 0.4
Apr	48	42	45.6	48	44	45.3	B + 4	K + 6	B + 0.3
Mar	49	44	45.5	47	43	45.6	B + 5	K + 4	K + 0.1
Feb	49	43	46.4	48	43	45.2	B + 5	K + 4	B + 1.2

Selected Data from Rasmussen Reports National Tracking Poll Feb - Oct, 2004 of 165,000 Likely Voters:

14,500 Likely Voters in February 15,500 Likely Voters in March 15,000 Likely Voters in April

15,000 Likely Voters in May 15,000 Likely Voters in June 14,000 Likely Voters in July

15,500 Likely Voters in August 30,000 Likely Voters in September 31,000 Likely Voters in October

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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