The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Washington shows Senator Maria Cantwell (D) leading challenger Mike McGavick (R) 46% to 40% (see crosstabs).

As a result of this poll, Rasmussen Reports is shifting the Washington Senate race from Democrat to Leans Democrat in our Balance of Power summary. A month ago, the seat was more solidly in the Democratic column as Cantwell enjoyed an 11-point lead to six.

While the incumbent Senator can take some comfort from the general Democratic leanings of the state, it should also be noted that Cantwell has not reached the 50% level of voter support since February. Support below that level is a concern for any incumbent and suggests that McGavick is not out of the running yet.

Our July survey was conducted following a Cantwell ad blitz. At that time, she enjoyed 88% support from Democrats in the state. In the current survey, that support has slipped back to 82% of Democrats (that’s back to where she was in June). The Senator’s position on Iraq has caused some discontent among the left wing of her party. Meanwhile, McGavick has made gains among GOP voters with 84% saying they’ll support his campaign. The previous two polls showed that number holding steady at 80%.

Cantwell is seen as politically liberal by 48% of voters while 40% see her as moderate. Forty-seven percent (47%) say McGavick’s conservative and 29% say moderate. A fairly significant percentage—20%—aren’t sure how to classify the challenger’s political beliefs.

Forty-nine percent (49%) of Washington voters say they trust Congressional Democrats more than President Bush when it comes to managing the economy. Forty-one percent (41%) say they trust President Bush more. These results are in line with responses to May’s survey when voters were asked which party they trust more on economic matters. In that case, Democrats topped Republicans 53% to 42%.

On the topic of trust and national security, President Bush barely edges out Congressional Democrats 46% to 45%. In May, Democrats were trusted more than Republicans by a 48% to 44% margin among Washington voters.

In addition to Washington, 3 other states with Democratic incumbents are now in the “Leans Democrat” category--Maryland, Michigan, and New Jersey.

Five Republican seats are in such trouble that they are rated either as heading towards the Democrats or are listed as a Toss-Up. These include Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, Montana, and Ohio. Additionally, the seats held by Virginia Senator George Allen and outgoing Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (Tennessee) are listed merely as “Leans Republican”.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.