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Virginia Senate: Allen’s Lead Shrinks After Controversial Remark
Allen (R) 47%, Webb (D) 42%
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Senator George Allen's alleged slur of an opposition campaign worker of Indian descent, recorded on video, has provoked a furious controversy in the state. In the wake of the controversy, support for Allen has dipped to its lowest level of the year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Virginia shows that Allen has lost a few percentage points of support and Democrat James Webb has gained a few. The incumbent now leads 47% to 42%, a six-point decline in his lead over Webb since July.

In April, Senator Allen had enjoyed a 20% lead, which shrunk to ten points after Webb secured the Democratic nomination in June.

Based upon this latest poll, Rasmussen Reports is shifting Virginia from Republican to Leans Republican in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

During an August campaign event, Senator Allen repeatedly used the word "macaca" in addressing a volunteer for the Webb campaign who was videotaping the event. "Macaca" is a word for "monkey" that can be used as a racial slur. Allen says his use of the word was careless but innocent. Our current survey of the contest was conducted August 16, several days after the incident and a couple days after Senator Allen publicly apologized.

Early in the year, Allen was viewed favorably by as many as 70% of Virginians. By last month he was still favored by 64%. That number is also dented in the new poll, with Allen viewed favorably by only 57% now.

Webb is viewed favorably by 47%, with 20% "not sure" what to think of him. Many of his supporters think now is the time to change that, and have been urging the Democratic Party to throw more resources into the campaign.

Democrats need to win a net of six Senate seats to regain control of the Senate. Polls show that five Republican Senators are either trailing or in a toss-up at this time. The Democrats' search for a sixth potential Senate seat has been elusive, although some now believe that Allen's statements make Virginia the most likely prospect.

Republican Senators who trail or are involved in toss-ups include Santorum in Pennsylvania, Chafee in Rhode Island, Burns in Montana, DeWine in Ohio, and Talent in Missouri.

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Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
August 16, 2006

Election 2006: Virginia Senate

George Allen (R)

47%

James Webb (D)

42%

Election 2006: Virginia Senate

Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Allen

Webb

Jun-Jul-Aug

49%

41%

Apr-Jun-Jul

50%

37%

Mar-Apr-Jun

52%

34%

Feb-Mar-Apr

51%

32%

Election 2006: Virginia Senate

Date

Allen

Webb

Aug 16

47%

42%

Jul 18

50%

39%

Jun 14

51%

41%

Apr 11

50%

30%

Mar 15

54%

30%

Feb 8

49%

37%

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