In Tennessee, Republican Mayor Bob Corker now leads Democratic Congressman Harold Ford 51% to 47% (see crosstabs).

This campaign has been one of the most volatile in Election 2006. Thought to be fairly safe for the GOP when the year began, Bob Corker had a double-digit lead in the summer. But, after wrapping up the Republican nomination, he coasted a bit while Ford surged. By early October , Ford was leading by five. Corker replaced his campaign manager at that time and began a comeback. Three straight polls showed Corker gaining ground but the race remaining close. Then, earlier this week, Corker opened his first significant lead since summer.

In the month of October alone, shifting fortunes have had this state listed at various times as "Leans Republican," "Leans Democrat," and "Toss-Up." The trend is recent weeks has been to Corker. However, there is still a chance this state could slip away from the GOP if the Democratic wave is a bit stronger than anticipated. Rasmussen Reports is shifting Tennessee from “Leans Republican” to “Toss-Up” in our Senate Balance of Power summary.

Each candidate has firmed up his base. Corker now attracts 93% of Republicans and Ford does the same among Democrats.

Corker is viewed favorably by 54% of voters. Ford by 53%.

If their vote determined control of the U.S. Senate, 50% of Tennessee voters would select Republican control while 45% would prefer the Democrats.

In addition to the Corker campaign team shake-up, other late-breaking developments include Ford's much-criticized crashing of a press conference being held by his opponent and the RNC ad with the curvaceous blond reminding voters that Ford attended a Playboy party.

Nationally, the issue of same-sex marriage came to the foreground again because of a controversial New Jersey Supreme Court decision on same-sex unions. Though both candidates criticized the decision, our polling has indicated that voters trust Corker more on that issue.

A "botched joke" by Senator John Kerry that seemed to disparage soldiers doubtless reminded some voters that they trust Republicans more than Democrats on national security.

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