Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee, marginally leading his Democratic opponent in previous surveys, is trailing for the second Rasmussen Reports election poll in a row. Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse now leads 44% to 38% (see crosstabs). A month ago, Whitehouse was ahead 46% to 41%.

Chafee faces a primary battle with Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, not the GOP's best hope here. In a match-up with Laffey, Whitehouse leads 55% to 31%.

Chaffee's tribulations are not unique. Our recent polling shows that Democrats are holding their own in Senate contests, including in states where it was thought the GOP had a decent chance to pick up a seat (see commentary on trends). Meanwhile, five incumbent Republican senators, including Chafee, now trail Democratic challengers (that list also includes Senators Santorum, Burns, DeWine, and Talent).

The uncertain fate of Senator Joseph Lieberman, though a Democrat, may be added to the list given how he's been targeted as too simpatico with President Bush by fellow Democrats angry over his support of the war in Iraq.

To succeed in a Democrat-leaning state like Rhode Island, Republicans like Chaffee must hope to lure Democrats as well as unaffiliated voters.

But if the unpopularity of President Bush is weighing down Republicans, this is one state where we'd expect to see the anti-Bush factor play out. Seventy-four percent (74%) of the state’s few Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing, but the President's approval rating is low generally. And only 12% of Democrats approve; 88% disapprove, 72% "strongly."

And Chafee's support from Democrats has dropped by half. He now attracts 19% of Democrats, 59% of Republicans, 43% of unaffiliated voters. In late April, when he was leading Whitehouse by a few points, Chafee's appeal to Republicans and unaffiliated voters was about the same. But he then attracted 38% of Democrats.

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