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Pennsylvania Senate: Santorum Lags by 10
Casey (D) 49%; Santorum (R) 39%
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In August, the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed Democratic candidate Bob Casey, Jr. leading Republican Senator Rick Santorum by just 48% to 40%. It was the closest the candidates had been all year and many wondered if it marked the beginning of a surge that would enable Santorum to draw even closer.

So far the answer is No. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows very similar results; with Casey leading 49% to 39% (see crosstabs).

Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli continues to attract 5% support and it's unlikely his slice of the electorate will grow much larger.

The two major-party candidates recently debated for the first time, clashing over the war in Iraq, pay raises for politicians in Pennsylvania and DC, and abortion. Many independent observers say Casey, not exactly renowned as a speaker, surpassed low expectations and was at least on a par with the more fiery incumbent. Some argue that Casey won the debate.

Twenty-seven percent (27%) view Santorum "very favorably," 30% "very unfavorably." For Casey it's 19% very favorable, 18% very unfavorable; only 4% are still "unsure."

Voters here are more likely to trust the GOP on national security, more likely to trust the Democrats on the economy and taxes. On immigration, the split is 37% to 38%, with 25% unsure.

For a plurality of 28%, the top electoral issue is the economy. But national security (21%) and Iraq (18%) aren't far behind, and if they are considered as one issue then they are the top priority for 39%.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 20, 2006

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate

Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

49%

Rick Santorum (R)

39%

Carl Romanelli (G)

5%

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Casey

Santorum

Jul-Aug-Sep

49%

39%

Jun-Jul-Aug

50%

39%

May-Jun-Jul

53%

36%

Apr-May-Jun

53%

36%

Mar-Apr-May

52%

37%

Mar 14-Mar 29-Apr

50%

39%

Feb-Mar 14-
Mar-29

50%

38%

Jan-Feb-Mar

51%

37%

Nov-Jan-Feb

53%

36%

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate

Date

Casey

Santorum

Sep 20

49%

39%

Aug 22

48%

40%

Jul 26

50%

39%

Jun 19

52%

37%

May 22

56%

33%

Apr 20

51%

38%

Mar 29

50%

41%

Mar 14

48%

38%

Feb 16

52%

36%

Jan 15

53%

38%

Nov 10

54%

34%

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