Though Senator Rick Santorum continues to lag behind Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr., Casey's lead has declined a bit. In the latest Rasmussen Reports election poll, Casey now earns support from just 48% of voters statewide. That's a four-point drop since February. Santorum has gained a couple points since that poll but is still in decrepit shape for an incumbent.

Casey has lost at least a point in each of the last several surveys. The decline likely reflects renewed attention to the abortion issue. At one point, there was a possibility that abortion-rights activist Kate Michelman would enter the race as an independent. Michelman and other Democrats are disappointed that Casey, like Santorum, is pro-life. The new South Dakota law banning almost all abortions in the state has also spotlighted the issue.

Michelman decided not to run, but talk of her candidacy (and endorsement by NOW of a pro-choice candidate over Casey in the primary) was a reminder that pro-choice voters have no reason to prefer Casey on the basis of that issue.

In Pennsylvania, 41% of likely voters say it is too easy to get an abortion, versus 23% who say it is too hard, and 24% who say the effort required is "about right." Fifty-two percent (52%) believe abortion is morally wrong, but only 34% agree that abortion should be banned except when the life of the mother is at risk. Fifty-two percent (52%) oppose such a ban.

Fifty-eight percent (58%) report knowing someone who had an abortion.

Casey currently attracts only 70% support from Democrats, 60% from liberals. In January, he drew 78% from Democrats, 82% from liberals. Santorum's support from the GOP and conservatives is also lackluster, but that is not a shift in his case.

Santorum is viewed favorably by 48% of likely voters, unfavorably by 47%. Casey is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by only 30%.

The rolling average of the last three Rasmussen Reports Pennsylvania election polls shows Casey continuing to hold a solid lead, 51% to 37%. While Casey's decline in the most recent poll is something to watch, it has not yet transformed the nature of this race.

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