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Pennsylvania Senate: Casey by 23
Santorum Remains Most Vulnerable Incumbent
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Santorum now trails Democratic challenger Bob Casey 56% to 33% (see crosstabs). Our latest survey of the governor's race also brings good news for the Democrat in that contest.

Last month, Santorum trailed by thirteen percentage points. The incumbent began 2006 down by 20 points and closed to within single digits by March. That was before the Primary Election solidified Casey's position as the Democratic nominee.

Santorum continues to flounder with his base, attracting support from only 67% of GOP voters. Casey now attracts 87% of Democrats, a ten-point gain since our April 20 poll.

The Senate race has been enlivened of late by controversy over Santorum's official residence, with the incumbent accusing the Casey campaign of spying.

Senator Santorum is viewed favorably by 42% of likely voters, unfavorably by 47%. About a quarter, 26%, view Santorum Very Unfavorably.

Casey is viewed favorably by 59%, unfavorably by 28%, with 13% undecided.

Pennsylvania voters tend to trust Democrats more than Republicans on most issues, with the exception of national security. See our story on the gubernatorial race for details.

Senator Santorum has no presidential coattails to cling to: only 36% approve of the job President Bush is doing. Sixty-two percent (62%) disapprove including 45% who Strongly Disapprove.

On national security issues, the President's performance is rated fair or better by 62% of likely voters; 35% say Poor. About 45% give him a grade of Poor on immigration and the economy. On Iraq, 56% say Poor; on energy policy, 53% say Poor.

To date, our three-poll rolling averages of the Pennsylvania race have shown Santorum lagging by anywhere from eleven points to seventeen percentage points.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
May 22, 2006

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate

Bob Casey, Jr. (D)

56%

Rick Santorum (R)

33%

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Casey

Santorum

Mar 29-Apr-May

52%

37%

Mar 14-Mar 29-Apr

50%

39%

Feb-Mar 14-Mar 29

50%

38%

Jan-Feb-Mar

51%

37%

Nov-Jan-Feb

53%

36%

Nov 10-Nov 30-Jan

53%

38%

Election 2006:
Pennsylvania Senate

Date

Casey

Santorum

May 22

56%

33%

Apr 20

51%

38%

Mar 29

50%

41%

Mar 14

48%

38%

Feb 16

52%

36%

Jan 15

53%

38%

Nov 10

54%

34%

July 20

52%

41%

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