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Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 45% DeWine (R) 42%
Saturday, August 26, 2006
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Once again, the challenger in Ohio's highly competitive race for U.S. Senate has edged out the GOP incumbent in the Rasmussen Reports election poll. Democrat Sherrod Brown now leads Republican Senator Mike DeWine 45% to 42% (see crosstabs). The one-point improvement for Brown since July doesn't mean much, except perhaps to political junkies gulping down popcorn in the front row. But the fact that the challenger has a narrow lead in three out of the last four polls is significant. Early in the year, DeWine was consistently ahead. Even though the incumbent had a seven-point advantage in June, our three-poll rolling average confirms a long-term if very gradual movement in Brown's direction. The question is whether either candidate can yank the closely watched race out of toss-up status, which is what we're still calling it in our rapidly-evolving Senate Balance of Power summary. DeWine is regarded as conservative by 34%, moderate by 44%. Brown is considered moderate by 38%, liberal by 32%. Twenty-four percent (24%) still aren't sure where Brown stands ideologically, which could give the incumbent a chance to paint him as too liberal in the remaining weeks of the campaign. Before he secured the nomination, some Democrats in the state had shied away from Brown for being too liberal. According to National Journal's 2006 nonpartisan rankings of congressmen, Brown is one of the 20%-most-liberal members of the House. Despite this ranking, Brown currently captures 59% of moderates (compared to DeWine's 29%), and even 18% of conservatives. The National Journal ratings say that DeWine is a plumb-line moderate in the U.S. Senate. DeWine is viewed favorably by 51% of Ohio voters, unfavorably by 43%. Brown is viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 35%. Crosstabs are available for Premium Members. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports Election Edge™ Premium Service offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage available anywhere. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
Survey of 500 Likely Voters
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