The latest Rasmussen Reports election poll in Nebraska shows Democratic Senator Ben Nelson leads former Ameritrade COO Pete Ricketts (R) 54% to 35% (see crosstabs). Conducted the night after Ricketts won the Republican primary, the new survey shows little change from our pre-primary poll in April.

Nebraska is generally a very Republican state with 570,000 registered Republicans versus 375,000 Democrats. President Bush carried the state by 33 percentage points in Election 2004 and many GOP strategists had long hoped that the Republican tilt to the state would be enough to unseat the incumbent Democrat in this year’s Senate race.

However, Senator Nelson's popularity and the power of incumbency gives him the edge at this time. Nelson is aided by the declining popularity of President Bush. While 66% of Nebraskans voted for Bush two years ago, just over 50% approve of his job performance today.

Still, on many issues, most Nebraskans trust Republicans more than Democrats. On national security, 58% trust the GOP more, 32% trust the Democrats more. Republicans are also heavily favored on the economy, Iraq and immigration. Among the five issues we asked about, the Democrats have the advantage only on energy policy, where Republicans aren't helped by spiking gas prices.

Nelson currently attracts from 29% to 37% of the vote from those who trust Republicans more on each of the issues we asked about. That provides an opportunity for Ricketts if he can convince those voters to look at the broader partisan competition in the nation’s Capitol.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.

That’s what happened a couple of years ago in Oklahoma. Tom Coburn was trailing badly in that race despite the GOP leaning of the state. In our first poll after Labor Day, Coburn had just 62% support from those who planned to vote for President Bush. As the campaign wore on, those Bush supporters looked past some doubts they had about the individual candidate to vote for a Republican Senate.

In Nebraska this year, the challenge for Ricketts is to get voters to look past their comfort with the incumbent, who is viewed favorably by 78% of likely voters. To accomplish this, Ricketts has a proven political team, a personal fortune to tap, and several months to play catch-up.

However, with the incumbent above 50% every time we've polled on the race, Ricketts will have to start catching up soon if the race is to be interesting in November.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members.