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Montana Senate: Burns Still Trailing
Burns (R) 43%; Tester (D) 50%
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Embattled Republican Senator Conrad Burns now trails Democrat Jon Tester 43% to 50% (see crosstabs). Tester enjoyed the same seven-point advantage in early July, right after clinching the Democratic nomination.

We continue to list this race as “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power Summary.

Burns just hasn't been able to turn the race around. It looked possible in August, when the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed the candidates with a 47% to 47% tie. But early this month, Tester reclaimed the lead by nine points.

The Senator's ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff are one persistent problem. He has also blundered into various gaffes in recent weeks, scrupulously recorded by a worker for the Tester campaign.

Perhaps old habits are also reasserting themselves. Although President Bush carried the state by more than twenty points in 2000, Burns only narrowly won his third term that year. And Montanans have a long history of electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate.

In any case, Senator Burns remains one of the Senate's two most vulnerable Republicans (the other, of course, being Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum).

Tester's base remains solid, with 90% of Democrats supporting him. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans support Burns. Tester now captures 16% of GOP voters.

The Democratic challenger continues to be viewed more favorably than the incumbent, who is regarded "very unfavorably" by 36%. In March, 29% disliked the Senator that intensely.

Though this hasn't been a great year for Republicans, Burns cannot say that he is exceptionally burdened by the unpopularity of President Bush. The President's job performance is approved by 51% of Montana voters, some ten points better than he is rated nationally; 31% "strongly approve." To be sure, as in other states, a large plurality "strongly disapprove" of Bush's performance. In Montana, that's 40% of all voters.

Governor Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat, wins approval from 78% of all voters, including more than 60% of Republicans.

Crosstabs are available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Survey of 500 Likely Voters
September 20, 2006

Election 2006: Montana Senate

Jon Tester (D)

50%

Conrad Burns (R)

43%

Election 2006: Montana Senate
Three-Poll Rolling Average

Surveys

Tester

Burns

Aug-Sep 13-Sep 20

50%

44%

Jul-Aug-Sep 13

50%

44%

May-Jul-Aug

48%

45%

Apr-May-Jul

47%

45%

Mar-Apr-May

46%

45%

Feb-Mar-Apr

45%

45%

Election 2006: Montana Senate

Date

Tester

Burns

Sep 20

50%

43%

Sep 13

52%

43%

Aug 8

47%

47%

Jul 6

50%

43%

May 11

48%

44%

Apr 11

44%

47%

Mar 14

46%

43%

Feb 7

46%

46%

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