Embattled Republican Senator Conrad Burns now trails Democrat Jon Tester 43% to 50% (see crosstabs). Tester enjoyed the same seven-point advantage in early July, right after clinching the Democratic nomination.

We continue to list this race as “Leans Democrat” in our Senate Balance of Power Summary.

Burns just hasn't been able to turn the race around. It looked possible in August, when the Rasmussen Reports election poll showed the candidates with a 47% to 47% tie. But early this month, Tester reclaimed the lead by nine points.

The Senator's ties to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff are one persistent problem. He has also blundered into various gaffes in recent weeks, scrupulously recorded by a worker for the Tester campaign.

Perhaps old habits are also reasserting themselves. Although President Bush carried the state by more than twenty points in 2000, Burns only narrowly won his third term that year. And Montanans have a long history of electing Democrats to the U.S. Senate.

In any case, Senator Burns remains one of the Senate's two most vulnerable Republicans (the other, of course, being Pennsylvania's Rick Santorum).

Tester's base remains solid, with 90% of Democrats supporting him. Seventy-seven percent (77%) of Republicans support Burns. Tester now captures 16% of GOP voters.

The Democratic challenger continues to be viewed more favorably than the incumbent, who is regarded "very unfavorably" by 36%. In March, 29% disliked the Senator that intensely.

Though this hasn't been a great year for Republicans, Burns cannot say that he is exceptionally burdened by the unpopularity of President Bush. The President's job performance is approved by 51% of Montana voters, some ten points better than he is rated nationally; 31% "strongly approve." To be sure, as in other states, a large plurality "strongly disapprove" of Bush's performance. In Montana, that's 40% of all voters.

Governor Brian Schweitzer, a Democrat, wins approval from 78% of all voters, including more than 60% of Republicans.

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